视频 · 主题对齐转录 · 2026-11-08

The Builders EP01 · Elon Musk

Walter Isaacson 访谈 · 约 40 分钟 · 自动转录稿

材料信息 · 来源 / 日期 / 转录状态(点开)

形态

视频 / 播客访谈 · 自动转录文本

节目

The Builders with Walter Isaacson(Kaleidoscope 制作、iHeartPodcasts 发行、Ramp 呈现)

主持 / 嘉宾

Walter Isaacson / Elon Musk

录制

2026-08-06

上线

2026-10-20(首期;iHeart 的 TechStuff 转发页标 10-21)

时长

约 40 分钟

侃姐发来

2026-11-08

转录性质

自动生成。iHeart 页面原注:"Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed."

来源

https://www.iheart.com/podcast/105-techstuff-26941194/episode/the-builders-elon-musk-348088693/ ;https://www.elonmuskarchive.org/video/builders-walter-isaacson-2026-10-20

状态

原文未加工、未校对。不在本文件内修正任何字词;辨析、纠错与观点笔记见 ../notes/2026-11-08-the-builders-ep01-elon-musk-notes.md

定位方式

本份文本无时间码,不编造 t12:34;引用一律用原句定位

对齐方式:原文是 89 个发言块组成的一整块自动转录(无时间码、无段落编号)。逐句读完内容后,用原文里真实存在的 21 个句子做主题锚点,把英文切成与中文 ¶ 段一一对应的同主题段落。每段标题右侧标了覆盖的 B 块范围,可到「原文英文全文(按发言块)」页核对边界。译文有删节或脱敏的段落已在中文栏标红说明,英文原文一字未改。
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¶1片头引子(节目冷开场)B1–B2 · 2 个发言轮次
EN · 原文

›I've been sort of somewhat conflicted about AI. I don't want to hasten our doom if because there's always some chance that AI could could be negative. But then, you know, when I've tried to take actions in this regard, it seems to have have only accelerated AI because reality is not just an interestingness maximizer but also an irony maximizer.

›And so by starting open AI, you ended up maximizing by leading to anthropic. OpenAI ended up accelerating AI and then Anthropic which is really you know splinter group from OpenAI um is accelerating it even more.

中文 · 译文

马斯克:我对 AI 一直有点矛盾。AI 总归有变坏的可能,我不想加速我们的末日。可是每次我在这方面做点什么,结果好像只是把 AI 推得更快——现实不只是一台「让事情变有趣」的机器,还是一台「让事情变讽刺」的机器。

Isaacson:所以你创办了 OpenAI,结果反倒催生了 Anthropic。OpenAI 加速了 AI,而从 OpenAI 分出去的 Anthropic,加速得还要更狠。

¶2节目开场白B2–B5 · 4 个发言轮次
EN · 原文

›I'm Walter Isacson and this is the builders. It's a series of conversations with the most consequential minds shaping our future. And I want to start with Elon Musk. Elon has lived a lot of lives since I last wrote about him. He went into government with Doge. He became a trillionaire with the SpaceX IPO. He bought Cursor AI, a company that turns individual coders into entire engineering teams. And he's shifting his solar energy strategy from panels on Earth to harnessing it from systems in space. He's a relentless builder with incredible power and his inventions and companies are destined to reverberate across humanity. So let's ask him about the future he believes that he's building. Elon Musk.

›Hey Walter,

›welcome to the builders.

›Uh thanks.

中文 · 译文

我是 Walter Isaacson,这是《The Builders》——一组对话,对象是那些正在塑造我们未来、影响最深远的人。我想从 Elon Musk 开始。

上次我写他之后,他又活了好几辈子:进了政府做 DOGE,靠 SpaceX 上市成了万亿富翁,买下了 Cursor AI——一家能把单个程序员变成整支工程团队的公司——还把太阳能战略从地面的光伏板,转向在太空里收集能源。他是个不停歇的建造者,握着惊人的权力,他的发明和公司注定会在整个人类身上激起回响。那就来问问他:他相信自己正在建造的,究竟是一个什么样的未来。

Elon Musk。

马斯克:嘿,Walter。 Isaacson:欢迎来到《The Builders》。 马斯克:谢谢。

¶3参与者,还是旁观者B5–B6 · 2 个发言轮次
EN · 原文

›I've uh watched you I think uh be maybe mercurial or waver in how sanguin you are about artificial intelligence. Sometimes you feel it's an existential threat right now. You seem to be going with the flow. Tell me how you're feeling about it.

›Well, I I do think it's at least some percentage chance of it being an existential threat. So, um but I there's nothing I can do to stop it. So I I I basically came to the conclusion I've got two choices which is either be a participant or a spectator and uh I guess being a participant is more interesting than being a spectator and maybe I can shape it hopefully in a good direction maybe.

中文 · 译文

Isaacson:我看着你对 AI 的态度一直有点摇摆,时而乐观、时而不那么乐观。有时候你觉得它眼下就是生存威胁,现在你又像是顺着潮流走了。跟我说说你到底怎么想。

马斯克:我确实认为它至少有某个百分比的概率是生存威胁。但我阻止不了它。所以我基本上得出一个结论:我只有两个选择——当参与者,或者当旁观者。我猜当参与者比当旁观者更有趣,而且也许我能把它往好的方向掰一掰。也许吧。

¶4追求真理 + 好奇 = 安全的基础;HAL 9000B7–B14 · 8 个发言轮次
EN · 原文

›And if you were to shape it how make it maximally truth seeeking.

›Yeah. Yeah. I think that's certainly an important uh foundation

›and make it curious.

›Yeah. Curious truth seeeking. Um I think I think these are important elements of safety. Um you know whereas if you uh you know try to force an an AI to believe two things that are cannot mutually be true like they can't they can't both be true but you tell AI A is true and B is true even though A and B contradict each other. Um and if that happens at a foundational level you can make the AI insane. In fact, I think that was at least part of the lesson that Clark was trying to convey in 2001 Space Odyssey. You know, the ship AI was told to to to take the astronauts to the monolith, but also that they could not know about the monolith. It was secret. And so it came to the conclusion that it must take them there dead. And thus so it basically the force the the I think I think part of what Aussie Clark was trying to say is like don't force don't force an AI to lie and if you make it maximally truth seeeking and curious like you say I I don't quite get it. Why does that make it safer?

›Well if you force the AI to believe two mutually consistent things you can you can make it go insane. Um and and an insane AI I think is not a safe one. Then curious I think is important because um a curious AI I think is going to want to foster humanity to see how we turn out. So like what happens to uh to a humanity that is uh that that that prospers and is becomes multilanetary. I think a curious AI will want to foster humanity. You know a future where there are humans on multiple planets is more interesting than one where where there are not any humans on the planets. So the most interesting outcome is the most likely.

›Yes. Well, generally I think that's true for a different reason which is that if simulation theory is correct then any simulations that are boring will be truncated.

›And is simulation theory correct?

›The fact that we exist uh means that we are an interesting simulation and really the mo the most important thing is just don't be boring.

中文 · 译文

Isaacson:如果要掰,怎么掰?让它最大限度地追求真理? 马斯克:对,对,我觉得这肯定是个重要的基础。 Isaacson:再让它保持好奇。 马斯克:对,好奇、追求真理。我认为这些是安全的重要要素。反过来,如果你硬要一个 AI 同时相信两件不可能同时成立的事——A 是真的,B 也是真的,可 A 和 B 明明互相矛盾——如果这种事发生在基础层,你能把这个 AI 逼疯。

事实上,我觉得这至少是 Arthur C. Clarke 在《2001 太空漫游》里想传达的一部分:飞船上的 AI 被命令把宇航员带到黑石碑那里,同时又被告知他们不能知道黑石碑的存在,那是机密。于是它得出结论:必须把他们带过去,但得是死的。所以我觉得,Clarke 想说的一部分就是——别逼 AI 撒谎。

Isaacson:让它最大限度地追求真理、保持好奇,这我没太懂。为什么这样就更安全? 马斯克:如果你逼 AI 同时相信两个互相矛盾[?]的命题,你会把它逼疯。而一个疯了的 AI,我认为不安全。

好奇之所以重要,是因为一个好奇的 AI 会想养着人类,看看我们最后会变成什么样。比如说,一个繁荣起来、变成多行星物种的人类会是什么样?我觉得好奇的 AI 会愿意扶持人类。有人类分布在多颗行星上的未来,比一颗行星上都没有人类的未来更有趣。

Isaacson:所以最有趣的结局,就是最可能发生的结局。 马斯克:对,一般来说我觉得是这样,不过理由不太一样:如果模拟理论成立,那么任何无聊的模拟都会被掐掉。 Isaacson:那模拟理论成立吗? 马斯克:我们存在这件事本身就说明,我们是一个有趣的模拟。真正要紧的其实就一句话:别变得无聊。

¶5别无聊;你有多相信我们活在模拟里B15–B16 · 2 个发言轮次
EN · 原文

›This has explained you a bit. You're on a crusade against being boring. Well, I've heard you talk about this a bit. I I really do need to know how convinced are you that we might be in a simulation.

›You know, I once had a dinner at my house with a physicist and a computer scientist, and they're both like leaders in their field, and I asked the question, what do you think the probabilities that we're in a simulation? And the physicist said 0% and the computer scientist said 100% simultaneously. So, I guess maybe I should go 50% then. I I don't know. It's It's I mean there there there's odd things that happen in this simulation where especially if you're me. I mean, think about it. Like if you're me and you're like, should should all these things really be happening? Should I really be making spaceships to go to the moon and Mars? Like what the that doesn't seem real.

中文 · 译文

Isaacson:这倒把你解释了一部分——你简直是在跟无聊宣战。我听你聊过一点。我真的很想知道,你到底有多确信我们可能活在一个模拟里。

马斯克:有一次我在家里请客,席上有位物理学家和一位计算机科学家,都是各自领域的顶尖人物。我问他们:我们活在模拟里的概率有多大?物理学家说 0%,计算机科学家说 100%,还是同时说的。所以我猜我该取个 50% 吧。我不知道。我是说,这个模拟里会发生些很怪的事,尤其当你是我的时候。想想看,如果你是我,你会不会问自己:这些事真的都在发生吗?我真的在做飞船去月球和火星吗?这也太不真实了。

¶6人类会不会沦为从属?黑猩猩的比喻B17–B19 · 3 个发言轮次
EN · 原文

›And what happens when you have all the intelligence you could possibly want in a society? Will that intelligence, the artificial intelligence be in charge? Will we sort of become subservient to our new machines?

›Um, I don't know about subservient uh exactly, but will we be able to boss around something that's, you know, thousands or millions of times smarter than us? No. Will it want to boss us around? I I may not care. Probably doesn't care. I mean, you can look at chimps in the in the in the jungle or whatever, and you know, we don't go around trying to micromanage the lives of chimps. Um, we just sort of let them be in the forest more or less these days, you know. Um, so it's probably like that, you know.

›And to what extent does super intelligence have its own agency at some point or does it have it already? You know, go back to Hitchhiker's Guide. You talk about a computer that is ultimately curious in some ways because it exists to explain the meaning of the universe. Why does it exist? And is AI aiming in that direction for you just like space travel is? Is that one reason you're so interested in doing AI?

中文 · 译文

Isaacson:当一个社会拥有它想要的全部智能之后会怎样?那种智能——人工智能——会不会掌权?我们会不会变成这些新机器的下属?

马斯克:「下属」这个词我不确定,但要说我们能不能对一样比我们聪明几千倍、几百万倍的东西发号施令?不能。那它想不想对我们发号施令?我觉得它多半不在乎,可能压根不放在心上。你看看丛林里的黑猩猩,我们并不会跑去微观管理黑猩猩的生活,如今大体上就是让它们在林子里待着。所以大概就是那样。

Isaacson:超级智能到某个阶段会有自己的主体性吗,还是它已经有了?回到《银河系漫游指南》——你聊过那台 computer,它在某种意义上是有好奇心的,因为它存在的目的就是解释宇宙的意义。它为什么存在?你做 AI 是不是也在朝这个方向走,跟你做太空旅行一样?这是你对 AI 这么感兴趣的原因之一吗?

¶7–8片头那段话的完整回放,以及后面的新内容B20–B25 · 6 个发言轮次
EN · 原文

›I mean, as you know, I'm I've been sort of somewhat conflicted about AI. you know is it I don't want to hasten our doom if because there's always some chance that AI could could be negative but then you know when I've tried to take actions in this regard it seems to have have only accelerated AI because I think reality is not just an interestingness maximizer but also an irony maximizer

›and so by starting open AI you ended up maximizing by leading to entropic

›I think it ended up accelerating AI

›consequence yeah OpenAI ended up accelerating AI and then anthropic which is really you know splinter group from open AI um is accelerating it even more

›and you've been talking to Dario Amade I was wondering if that could even lead to more of a partnership of XAI anthropic

›well I guess we are providing them with compute which they they really needed but before I ran them computer I went and met with a bunch of people at at Anthropic to sort of I don't know see if anyone set off my evil detector or anything like that. Not that my evil detector is perfect, of course, but you know, you might as well just try, you know. Um, and everyone I met at Anthropic was very nice and conscientious. So, I didn't meet anyone who seemed shady or deceptive or anything. Um I'm a little worried about the name because of the you know reality being kind of an irony maximizer that if you call something anthropic good chance it's misanthropic you know um just like open AI is not closed. Um stability AI is unstable. Uh midjourney is not mid. It seems like they're all kind of the opposite of their name. um which made it like like X AI is like it's hard to have an opposite of XAI like would you have like minus X AI or Y AI or maybe I don't know

中文 · 译文
译文缺口:节目在这里把 ¶1 那段片头话完整回放了一次,译文按约定不重复译;英文原文(B20–B23)完整保留在左栏。

¶7 说明:从这里起,节目把 ¶1 那段「我对 AI 一直有点矛盾……现实是讽刺最大化器 → 创办 OpenAI 反倒催生 Anthropic」完整回放了一次,内容已在 ¶1 译出,此处不再重复。以下是回放之后接上的新对话。

Isaacson:……所以你创办了 OpenAI,结果把它推向了 Anthropic。 马斯克:我觉得它加速了 AI。 Isaacson:结果就是——OpenAI 加速了 AI,然后 Anthropic,这个从 OpenAI 分出去的群体,加速得更厉害。 马斯克:对,OpenAI 加速了 AI,Anthropic 作为 OpenAI 的分支,加速得还要更多。

Isaacson:你一直在跟 Dario Amodei 聊,我在想这会不会甚至促成 xAI 和 Anthropic 的某种合作。 马斯克:嗯,我们确实在给他们提供算力,他们很需要。不过在给他们跑算力之前,我先去 Anthropic 见了一堆人,算是……看看有没有人触发我的「邪恶探测器」之类的。当然我那个探测器并不完美,但试一试总没坏处。我见到的 Anthropic 每个人都非常友善、很认真,没遇到谁显得可疑或者不诚实。

我有点担心的是名字,因为现实这东西挺爱讲讽刺:你把一样东西叫 anthropic(「关乎人类」),它很可能变成 misanthropic(「反人类」)。就像 OpenAI 一点都不 open,Stability AI 一点都不 stable,Midjourney 一点都不 mid——好像全都是名字的反面。这就让 xAI 有点尴尬,想找个反义词都难:负 xAI?Y AI?我也说不上来。

¶9与其等监管,不如让竞争对手互测B26–B29 · 4 个发言轮次
EN · 原文

›it's pretty difficult to create guard rails especially the government I can't imagine how Congress or whatever could do it could you imagine the five frontier models yours and the others just getting together once a week and saying all right how are we going to save humanity from ourselves

›no in fact I've recommended that we do that exactly I think because there's a lot of talk of of having a regulatory agency, but I the problem the thing is that regulatory agencies, it takes a long time to get one established and their rule making is very slow. Um and and an I what I said like guys what if we just have a call once a week just like you're saying and say and and uh and that maybe we uh a week before we release a model we give that you know we give access to our competitors to say hey guys why why don't you try out the new model see if you see any problems with it I think competitors would keep each other honest in that situation um you know if they say oh this it's you know I was able to make a nuclear bomb with your AI is like, "Oh, we better fix that before we release it." You know, type of thing. Um, so, um, I don't know. I think I guess I'll I'll I'll talk to Anthropic about this. And

›could you talk to Sam about it or is the poison too strong there?

›He's so deceptive. It's It's crazy.

中文 · 译文

Isaacson:护栏特别难做,尤其交给政府。我很难想象国会之类的机构能干这事。你能不能想象一下:五家前沿模型公司,你的加上别家,每周聚一次,说「好吧,这周咱们怎么把人类从我们自己手里救下来」?

马斯克:事实上我还真提过就这么干。外面很多人在说要设一个监管机构,但问题在于,监管机构从设立到运转要很久,制定规则更慢。我说的是:各位,要不我们就按你说的,每周打一通电话?还有,模型发布前一周,把访问权限给竞争对手,说「嘿,试试新模型,看看有没有什么问题」。我觉得在这种局面下,竞争对手会让彼此保持诚实。要是有人说「哦,我用你的 AI 搓出了一颗核弹」,那就是「哎,发布之前最好先修一下」那种事。所以我……我不知道,我估计会去跟 Anthropic 聊聊这个。

Isaacson:能跟 Sam 聊吗?还是那边的毒太深了? 马斯克:他太不诚实了,离谱。[指 Sam Altman]

¶10从零重建 xAI:本人得真的待在公司里B30–B31 · 2 个发言轮次
EN · 原文

›You built XAI. You rebuilt XAI from the ground up not too long ago, right? It's almost like you did it with the Raptor engine, too, on Starship. You said wait a minute let let's start from scratch. How did you do what did you do to rebuild XAI that way?

›First of all spending actually spending meaningful time at the company makes a big deal makes a big difference. It started off as as kind of a side hustle um a side hustle to a side hustle frankly. Um and I didn't really pay close attention to it. Then then there was a a year of the uh of being in politics and you know elections and Doge and all that which you obviously saw. Uh so the company's only 3 years old so that so it's basically uh so and so I really got back to the company just over a year ago. Um, so I had to get my bearings and then obviously I combined X and X AI and then with the SpaceX.

中文 · 译文

Isaacson:你创办了 xAI,不久前又把它从地基开始重做了一遍,对吧?有点像你在 Starship 上对 Raptor 发动机做的——「等一下,咱们从头来」。你是怎么把它重做成这样的?

马斯克:首先,本人真的花大量时间待在公司里,这个差别非常大。它一开始有点像个副业,说白了是副业的副业,我没怎么上心。后来有一整年泡在政治里,选举、DOGE 那些,你都看到了。公司才 3 岁,所以……我真正回到公司其实是一年多以前的事。我得先重新摸清状况,然后很明显,我把 X 和 xAI 合并了,接着又并进了 SpaceX。

¶11离开那一年:太久了,该早点回来做 AIB32–B42 · 11 个发言轮次
EN · 原文

›You just said something interesting about your year away from XAI and everything else in government and politics.

›Do you feel that that was too much of a distraction that in retrospect it was misbegotten?

›I think I I think I I had it gone for too long, you I mean, obviously a lot of people will disagree with me about this, but I I I think it's always it was important to elect uh President Trump to sort of, you know, steer things more in the direction of a free market economy. Um, you know, have less bureaucracy ideally. I just in in in my sort of a simple political platform of wanting safe cities, secure borders, aspirationally sensible spending, you know, the basics. um that that I thought uh Trump would be better than you know Kamala basically. So uh but but then but then um what I should have done I think was be more in the background. I mean it was it was interesting to sort of go around with uh President Trump and you know gone the Marine One and Air Force One and all that sort of stuff.

›But was that too seductive in a way?

›It was a little bit. I mean, it was it was kind of cool cuz I'm just there in the Oval Office while, you know, all these like big momentous decisions are being made and, you know, just some sometimes having some impact on what's being done. But I I think I should I think I should have um I think maybe I should I should have been more like I said been more in the background and probably only had it last for you know a month or two because at that point you've you've you're you've sort of seen most of what there is to see within a month or two.

›Yeah. You seem to get a bit too intoxicated by it in a way with the chainsaws and all that. That's Yeah, I think that's true. Yeah. Yeah. I got carried away basically. Yeah. I mean I So I ended up leaving I guess sometime in May. Uh

›that was a weird weekend.

›Yeah, it was. Uh

›tell me about it.

›It was

›No, no, I kind of Let's not let's not dig up the Let's let's sleeping dogs lie or whatever, you know. Um, let's not let's not put a spade down in the backyard type of thing. You never know what you're going to find. But yeah, anyway, point is I I I should have gone gone back and focused on uh AI a little sooner than I did.

中文 · 译文
译文缺口:译文对选举、政党与政治人物的一段立场性评价作了省略,英文原文一字未改完整保留在左栏。

Isaacson:你刚说你离开 xAI、在政府和政治里待了一年。回头看,你觉得那是分心太多、走错了一步吗?

马斯克:我觉得我离开得太久了。显然很多人会不同意,这个我认。

〔中段省略说明〕:此处原文是关于选举、政党与政治人物的一段立场性评价,与 AI / 工程学习主题无关,按本库范围约定不逐句翻译、不评价。原文完整保留在 sources/ 的 transcript。

马斯克:……我本该更多待在幕后,而且大概只待一两个月就够了,因为一两个月下来,该看的你基本都看过了。

Isaacson:某种意义上是不是有点太诱人了?那些链锯什么的。 马斯克:有一点。我是说,挺酷的——我就在椭圆办公室里,旁边正在做各种重大决定,有时候还能影响一点正在做的事。但我觉得我本该更靠后站,大概一两个月就收。我确实是有点被带跑了,5 月前后离开的。 Isaacson:那是个挺怪的周末。 马斯克:是挺怪的。 Isaacson:说说看。 马斯克:不了不了,别把睡着的狗叫醒,别往后院里一铲子下去,你永远不知道会挖出什么。总之重点是:我本该更早回去专注做 AI。

¶12国债只能靠 AI 和机器人B43–B44 · 2 个发言轮次
EN · 原文

›And uh did you feel like when he gives you a golden key, you going did you kind of feel relieved like actually this has been intoxicating, but I can do more if I go back to my businesses. I mean, what what did you feel when you said, "Oh man, I'm exiting. Maybe that's not the worst thing.

›Well, I really actually the thing is I came to the conclusion that um that that there was no way we were going to solve the deficit from within the government. Impossible. Um you know, maybe if the president made that his primary goal, we could do that. But but it the problem is if you if you try to solve the deficit and and stop wasteful spending, um you get you make a lot of enemies in that situation. And President Trump is not, you know, he he he likes to be liked. He's he's not um you know, he doesn't he doesn't like people, you know, calling him being upset about what some funding being stopped type of thing. Um um yeah, so but I you know, I came to the conclusion that the only way we're going to solve the national debt is with AI and robots. We're not going to solve it by trying to save our way there. The appetite is not there. And it's not just at the presidency. The appetite is not there at the presidency, the House, the Senate, or the the judiciary. Basically, no one in authority in the government whatsoever really, with maybe a few rare exceptions of the like Rand Pauls of the world type of thing, um actually wants to stop uh reduce spending. No, they don't. So then you've got uh this national debt that's enormous. you've got an interest on the debt that exceeds what we spent on the military. Um, which is a really an astonishing amount of interest to be paid.

中文 · 译文
译文缺口:译文略去了一句对具体政治人物喜好的评价,英文原文完整保留。

Isaacson:拿到那把金钥匙、说「我要退了」的时候,你是不是有点松了口气——「这段挺上头,但我回公司能干更多」?

马斯克:我真正的结论是:赤字不可能从政府内部解决,不可能。除非总统把它当成首要目标,也许还有戏。但问题是,你一去砍赤字、砍浪费性支出,就会树一大堆敌人。[此处有一句对具体政治人物喜好的评价,按范围约定略去] 总之我得出的结论是:解决国债唯一的办法是 AI 和机器人,靠省是省不出来的。没有这个意愿——不只在总统那儿,众议院、参议院、司法系统都没有,掌权的人里基本没谁真想削减支出,偶尔有一两个例外。于是你就有了这么庞大的国债,光利息就超过了我们的军费开支,这个数字真是惊人。

¶13核心段:物理世界 AI 比 LLM 重要一两个数量级B45–B48 · 4 个发言轮次
EN · 原文

›When we look at uh AI right now and the LLMs, that's pretty good. Does amazing things. But it seems to me that physical world AI is going to be an order of magnitude, maybe two orders of magnitude more important in the future.

›Yes. Yes. I I definitely agree. Um, you know, sometimes think about like dolphins and whales because they they can't manipulate things. They don't have, you know, hands and fingers and thumbs and stuff. Um, there's a limit to how far in, you know, how much intelligence would can you actually bring to bear? Um so you dolphins and whales are very are actually very intelligent but um because they they can't manipulate complex objects I I think that actually made the value of intelligence much less to your point once you've got once you have a robot that can manipulate atoms can shape objects the the value of the of the intelligence um becomes exponentially greater. uh because it can outdo things you know you it could have a science lab and and and run experiments and try to understand the nature of the universe you know and I think you can look at this also in economic terms like my guess is digital super intelligence probably improves the uh output of goods and services by 20 to 30% something like that call it like a you know maybe a 30% increase in uh the the uh economy of earth so It's still significant. It's like $30 trillion a year incremental.

›It's not very much really. It's not transformative.

›It it'll there'll be a lot more stuff. I mean, 30% more stuff is still a lot. And this is just my, you know, my rough guess. Um, but if you if you have robots and and you you get to space and you and you can do a mass driver on the moon, um, then you can get to, I think, potentially a million times the size of the Earth economy. And then what happens to earth when we have a economy a mill or I mean money becomes irrelevant work becomes irrelevant what's the future look like?

中文 · 译文

Isaacson:看现在的 AI、这些大语言模型,已经相当好了,能做出惊人的事。但我总觉得,物理世界的 AI 在未来会重要一个数量级,也许两个数量级。

马斯克:对,对,我完全同意。我有时候会想海豚和鲸鱼——它们没法操纵东西,没有手、手指、拇指之类的。所以再高的智能,你究竟能让它发挥多少?海豚鲸鱼其实非常聪明,但因为它们不能操纵复杂物体,我觉得智能的价值因此低了很多。

接你的话:一旦你有了能操纵原子、能塑造物体的机器人,智能的价值就会指数级放大。因为它可以自己开一间科学实验室、自己做实验、试着理解宇宙的本质。

这个也能用经济账来看:我猜数字超级智能大概只能把商品和服务的产出提高 20% 到 30%,就算 30% 吧,也就是地球经济增加 30%。

Isaacson:那其实不算多,算不上颠覆性。 马斯克:东西会多很多啊,多 30% 的东西也不少了。这只是我的粗估。但如果你有机器人,能上太空,能在月球上搞一台质量加速器,那我觉得经济规模有可能达到地球经济的一百万倍。到那时候地球会怎样?钱变得无关紧要,工作变得无关紧要,未来是什么样?

¶14货币会变成瓦特和吨位B49–B49 · 1 个发言轮次
EN · 原文

›Yeah money becomes irrelevant. I mean the there will be still currency but I think currency will be measured in fundamental physics metrics like um p you know power like wattage and tonnage ma mass and energy you know mass and power or energy basically. So um but conventional currency will not matter in in the future. Uh so that that's that's uh that's my guess. I think it's pretty obvious. Um and uh and and as soon as you start getting to many orders of magnitude bigger than than Earth's economy, um, satisfying whatever humans can possibly think of for their needs is is very easy. you know, if you're several orders of magnitude bigger than the Earth's economy, um, then providing humans whatever goods and services they can think of that they might want, uh, is is trivial.

中文 · 译文

马斯克:钱会变得无关紧要。我是说,货币还会存在,但我想它会用基础物理量来计量——比如功率、瓦数、吨位、质量、能量,基本上是质量和功率/能量。传统货币在未来不再重要。这是我的猜测,我觉得挺明显的。

一旦经济规模比地球经济大出好几个数量级,满足人类想得出来的任何需求就非常容易了。比地球经济大几个数量级之后,人类能想到的任何商品和服务,供给起来都是小事一桩。

¶15不工作以后,人靠什么获得意义B50–B53 · 4 个发言轮次
EN · 原文

›And so what do we do then as humans? What gives us meaning? How do we organize ourselves?

›I mean, I do struggle with this question. I think people will will find ways to be happy uh in the in the same way that say people who retire seem to be rel you know fairly happy even though they're not working. But I think the reality is that you humans will not there won't be anything that humans can do that that the AI and the robots can't do better. One analogy might be gardening, you know, where you you you don't have to grow your own fruits and vegetables. You can just go buy them from the store, but uh sometimes people like to grow their own fruits and vegetables and make dinner for friends and it's kind of a nice touch.

›What about creating art or that type of creativity? Is that more in the sphere of humans?

›Yeah, you could certainly create art or whatever you feel like doing. Essentially,

中文 · 译文

Isaacson:那我们人类做什么?什么给我们意义?我们怎么组织自己? 马斯克:这个问题我确实答不太好。我觉得人会找到让自己快乐的方式,就像退休的人虽然不工作了,看起来也过得挺开心。但现实是,不会剩下任何一件「人能做、而 AI 和机器人做不了更好」的事。

园艺也许是个类比:你不必自己种水果蔬菜,去店里买就行,但有时候人就是喜欢自己种点东西、给朋友做顿饭,那种感觉挺好。

Isaacson:那搞艺术、或者那类创造力呢?是不是更属于人类的领域? 马斯克:当然可以,你想创作艺术或者干点什么都行。本质上……

¶161890 年代的类比:技术浪潮与财富差距B54–B55 · 2 个发言轮次
EN · 原文

›we like to think of this as a time of unprecedented technological change, but you know, we historians go back to the 1890s when you get electricity and telephones and cars and, you know, subways and uh radio and movies, all these things happening at once. And it leads to many things, but it all often leads to a great disparity of wealth, a lot of sense of robber barons, a lot of people then picking up pitchforks and deciding that this is bad. And there's some echoes of that now. Is there a way to prevent that given the amount of wealth being generated? Will we put certain things in the commons the way they did in the 1890s when they make high school universal and free? Will we say, "Okay, health care, for example, should just be in the commons and that's going to sap some of the populist revulsion at what's happening."

›Well, um I mean, as as you heard me say, I mean, I don't think money is going to matter in the future. Um it like anyone will be able to have any goods and services that they want. And I don't think even so-called wealthy people will ultimately control the AIs. I think they'll control themselves. So, so it's not like you have to separate uh like like I think the sort of a fundamental misunderstanding of economics arises because of conflating resource allocation and consumption. So there there's there's a limit to what any single human can consume. It's it's it's you know you hit that saturation point pretty fast. So like say going from say a billion dollars net worth to $10 billion of net worth doesn't make you 10 times happier or mean you have 10 times more stuff. It actually means you've you've got a resource allocation problem. Um assuming that you wish to be an efficient resource allocator.

中文 · 译文

Isaacson:我们习惯把当下看成前所未有的技术变革,但学历史的人会回到 1890 年代:电、电话、汽车、地铁、广播、电影,全挤在一起出现。它带来很多东西,也常常带来巨大的财富差距、一堆「强盗大亨」,然后很多人拿起干草叉说这不行。现在有回声了。有没有办法避免?考虑到正在产生的财富量,我们会不会像 1890 年代把高中变成全民免费那样,把某些东西放进公共领域?比如直接说医疗就该是公共品,好把那股民怨泄掉一部分。

马斯克:你听我说了,我认为钱在未来不再重要。任何人都能得到他想要的任何商品和服务。我也不认为所谓富人最终能控制那些 AI,AI 会自己控制自己。所以并不是非得把什么切出来。

我觉得经济学里有个根本性的误解,来自把资源配置和消费混为一谈。单个人的消费是有上限的,很快就到饱和点。所以从 10 亿美元身家到 100 亿美元,不会让你快乐 10 倍、也不会让你多拥有 10 倍的东西——它实际上意味着你多了一个资源配置的问题,前提是你还想当个高效的资源配置者。

¶17财富只是股权和投票权B56–B59 · 4 个发言轮次
EN · 原文

›Well you've accumulated as you know you know a trillion. Is it mainly because you

›I've created

›Yeah. Is it mainly because you feel you're best at allocating that that keeping that allows you to allocate capital to do things like go to Mars, create AI, do robots, uh or is it in some ways just a scoring system that's kind of uh racking up the points?

›I mean I like I need to have sufficient voting control in the companies to you know still be in charge. Um so um it's the you know my so sort of so-called wealth is simply a percentage ownership in the in the in SpaceX and Tesla essentially and this is going to be taxed quite heavily and there's not some magical way to avoid taxes if if it were I would know about it. So um you know at the end of the day um the this will get whittleled down um and a few generations from now. So if money still matters which I don't think it will um you know my descendants would have a tiny fraction of what I have.

中文 · 译文

Isaacson:你积累了……你知道,一万亿。主要是因为你觉得你最擅长配置它,握着它才能把资本投到火星、AI、机器人这些事上?还是说某种程度上它只是一套记分系统,在不断加分?

马斯克:我需要手里有足够的投票权,才能继续说了算。所谓财富,本质上就是我在 SpaceX 和 Tesla 的持股比例,这笔钱会被课很重的税,也没有什么避税的魔法——要真有我肯定知道。所以到头来它会被一点点削掉,几代人之后,如果钱还重要的话(我不觉得会),我的后代只剩我今天的一小部分。

¶18「想被喜欢」对一个建造者有多危险B60–B61 · 2 个发言轮次
EN · 原文

›Let me go back to something you said that really struck me about President Trump which he really likes to be liked. He wants to be liked. And I remember you talking to me at some point about people say they have empathy, but in some ways it's a vanity because you want to be liked. And I think you even diagnosed it in me. You said probably wasn't very good at running CNN or Time magazine because I wanted to be liked. To what extent is a desire to be liked a problem when it comes to being a builder of a company?

›Well, the problem is if if you're going to do things that um diminish the success probability of the of of the company in order to be uh liked, then you know you're you're going to things are not going to work out as well. Um like it's not as though I don't like to be liked. I would love to be liked. Um, but am I going to do things that are contrary to the best interest of the companies in order to be liked a bit more? I'm not, you know, so it's I I I don't I I'm okay with being disliked uh by some. I'm, you know, obviously I'm not disliked by, you know, like a lot more people like me than dislike me or I wouldn't be, you know, wouldn't have a quarter billion followers. I mean, I don't think they're following me or to hate on what I say, you know. Um, and if I if I look at the, you know, the the comments and whatnot, um, you know, I don't know, maybe three out of four or I mean, I I'd say like 70 80% of people like me. Well, if if they know, you know, if they know anything about me, that's probably a quarter of people that that don't. Uh, maybe I'm just guessing here. and and and there's going to be a spectrum. There's people that are, you know, maniacally devoted to me and people that hate my guts. It's a, you know, um it's going be some number of people that that fit into those categories.

中文 · 译文
译文缺口:译文对具体政治人物姓名作了脱敏,英文原文保留原有表述。

Isaacson:回到你刚才说的那句——[某政治人物]喜欢被喜欢、想要被喜欢。我记得你跟我聊过,有些人说自己有共情,但某种程度上那是虚荣,因为你想要被喜欢。你甚至拿这个诊断过我,说我大概不适合管 CNN 或《时代》周刊,因为我想被喜欢。对一个公司的建造者来说,「想被喜欢」在多大程度上是个问题?

马斯克:问题在于,如果你为了多被喜欢一点,去做那些降低公司成功概率的事,那结果就不会太好。倒不是说我不喜欢被喜欢,我当然也想。但我会为了多被喜欢一点,去做违背公司最佳利益的事吗?不会。所以被一部分人不喜欢,我是能接受的。

显然我也不是被很多人讨厌——喜欢我的人比不喜欢的多得多,不然也不会有两亿五千万粉丝,我猜他们不是为了恨我才关注的。看评论的话,大概四分之三、或者七八成的人是喜欢我的;如果他们真了解我,大概有四分之一不喜欢。这只是我瞎猜。而且这是个光谱:有狂热追随我的,也有恨我入骨的,两头都有一定数量的人。

¶19〔不逐句翻译〕B62–B66 · 5 个发言轮次
EN · 原文

›Well, you've been talking a lot about the suicidal empathy ideas. Do you really think that uh empathy uh has become a real problem or that we have too much empathy? I I could make the argument that sometimes no,

›we're losing

›empathy. No, I think you don't want to have misguided empathy. I mean, I I I agree with God's uh philosophy here. Um and it's it's suicidal empathy is um you know, it's that's his his term. He wrote a book to that effect. Um and I think his book is well written. He points out some good good things here, which is that part of the reason for the prosperity of the West has been the um that that there's actually just been a fairly high trust, high empathy society. um which is you know when you when you're trying to get people to cooperate at scale this this stuff this this makes a lot of sense. Um and you you you want to encourage uh behavior that is good for uh society or you know people for people to do good things that are good for their fellow human beings. And ultimately that actually does end up being good for the individual if provided it it is mutual. Now uh where this can go wrong is if you if if if your theory of mind is is uh is is incorrect. So if you if you uh think everyone is like yourself um then then you're you're you're going to have a problem uh because this is simply not true. Um there are peoples and cultures with very different views. You know you could say You talk about immigration, by the way, and you say there are cultures with different views. Does your views on immigration distinguish between different cultures like a Muslim culture that might not fit in as well, or is it how do you do that? Well, I'm I'm what I'm saying I think is simply logically consistent, which is that if if um if if there's a culture that that has uh diametrically opposed views to uh our culture and and that's you could take Islam. It's it's not that of course there are um many people who, you know, Muslims who are quite reasonable um but there are some who are not. And if if you're not un unless you're filtering for uh jihadis, uh you're going to get jihadis and they're going to do jihad and and kill people. Now in in Israel, they understand this quite well. You know, they obviously this lesson has been uh you know reinforced with a lot of attacks. Uh you know the neighboring countries many times in Israel, many times have tried to annihilate Israel several times, not once, multiple times. Um and so you know in Israel they realize you know if you let in the people that into Israel that want to to uh kill Israelis uh they will do so. Uh they so they're quite pragmatic about this and they try to you know make sure that doesn't happen.

›But one of the things our country is founded on is uh individuals versus group identities. Do you worry that sometimes when you make sweeping generalizations, you're making a group identity rather than saying uh the foundational ethic of the United States, which is individuals get treated separately.

›Yes. But you you can't conflate that with um uh sort of the the sort of um blank slate fallacy that that all people are exactly the same. Uh you know, at their core, they're not. This is this is just a an obvious falsehood. You know, you you can't you can't put yourself in the mind of a serial killer unless you're a serial killer like like unless you enjoy murdering people, you can't imagine why someone would do such a thing. And if if someone is uh you know an an religious extremist um where they view anyone who is not in their religion um as the enemy or or you know uh that that those who are not in their religion should die. It's difficult for you to to to understand that that mindset because you don't have that mindset. But you can obviously recognize there are people who do have that mindset and that if you let them into the country uh they will kill people. Let me give you an example. Uh there's many um we had uh someone who was working at the Tesla factory in Austin until December of last year. Um he was fired um because uh he assaulted a woman who stepped on his prayer rug in the factory. Okay. So she was she wasn't expecting anyone to be praying in the factory and he was praying in the factory. She accidentally stepped on his prayer rug and he assaulted her. They violently assaulted her. Um so he was fired for that and then a few months later he went and killed three students in the bar in downtown Austin. Now I think we shouldn't let people like that into the country. Do you?

中文 · 译文
译文缺口:这一长段译文按本库范围约定未逐句翻译(共情、移民、宗教、国别冲突、刑事案件等议题),中文栏只给范围说明;英文原文(B62–B66)完整保留在左栏。

范围说明:原文从「你一直在讲『自杀式共情』那套想法」开始,一直到「Where do you get your information?」之前,是一段关于共情、移民、宗教、国别冲突与一桩刑事案件的长问答。它与本次 AI / 工程学习主题无关,按本库「政治、社会议题不展开、不评价」的约定不逐句翻译。原文一字未动地保留在 sources/ 的 transcript 里,段落位置在此,前后文衔接不受影响。

¶20信息从哪来;两个气泡B67–B76 · 10 个发言轮次
EN · 原文

›Where where do you get your information? I know you're not particularly fond of legacy media, mainstream media. Is most of it from social media or do you have sources of information?

›Um, yeah. I mean, I look at Google News, uh, which is a summation of headlines. I look at uh the Xplatform, which if if something's important enough, it it it'll it'll show up on the X platform. Um, I talk to friends and that's where I, you know, and I do research. That's how I look at things.

›Reason I ask is that sometimes, and I get a lot of my news on social media, especially X, it's sort of a darker, more dystopian view. And I remember this from the old days, too. Sometimes the mainstream media would say, "Oh, everything's going to hell in hand basket. There riots everywhere." And you'd say, "Wait a minute. I'm walking around here. It ain't that bad." Do you think that?

›Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Exactly. Um, you just have to see what's in frame, you know. I I do think at times the X speed can be a little dark. Um, and in fact, then I and then I have to switch to something that's domain specific like AI in order to actually learn what's going on in AI. I do think there's a there's too much political rage bait on X if that's what you're getting at.

›Yeah. about darkness in general and rage bait, but also I know you got into an argu or a discussion with think of is England going to hell in a hand basket type things and there does seem to be a darkness.

›You know, I feel it myself sometimes if I'm on social media too much. I think until that the world is really collapsing, then I go outside, take a walk, and life is okay.

›Yeah. Go touch grass.

›Yeah. Exactly.

›Once in a while.

›Um Yeah. Yeah. No, I I mean I think both can be misleading and like and you know if if you go for a walk in a nice neighborhood everything seems fine. Um but even though there may be terrible things happening. So you know you you you don't you you don't want to uh assume all the world is is is going to hell or that all the world is fine. It's the reality is somewhere in between. But I I sometimes think our society gets too binary. Everything's either black or white. Everything gets polarized because of that. And I don't know whether it's technological is whether it's our information feeds. You know, I I you're right. You could be in your own bubble, which is you only take walks in the right part of a town and things seem okay, but also I think you can get your own bubble in social media, too, and suddenly you're thinking Yeah. weird things. You can you can be in a in in a in a real world positivity bubble or uh a uh you know social media negativity bubble. Those are both both possible.

中文 · 译文

Isaacson:你从哪儿获取信息?我知道你不太待见传统媒体、主流媒体。主要来自社交媒体吗,还是你有别的信源?

马斯克:嗯,我看 Google News,就是一堆标题的汇总;我看 X 平台——真有足够重要的事,X 上会出现;我跟朋友聊;再就是自己做研究。大概就是这样。

Isaacson:我为什么问这个:我也有很多新闻来自社交媒体,尤其 X,它呈现的世界观偏暗、偏反乌托邦。以前也一样,主流媒体会说「一切都在完蛋,到处都是暴乱」,你出门走一圈却说「等等,我人就在这儿,没那么糟啊」。你觉得呢?

马斯克:对对对,完全是这样。你得注意什么在取景框里。我有时候也觉得 X 的调子偏暗。而且真要搞懂 AI 在发生什么,我得切到 AI 这种垂直领域的信息源才行。X 上政治性的引战内容太多了,如果你指的是这个——是的。

Isaacson:不只是引战和阴暗,我知道你卷进过「英国是不是要完蛋了」那类讨论,那里头确实有一股阴暗劲儿。 马斯克:我自己刷社交媒体刷多了也会这么觉得,会以为世界真的在崩塌;然后我出门走一走,发现日子还行。 Isaacson:对,偶尔去摸摸草。 马斯克:没错。

不过我觉得两边都可能骗人。你在个漂亮社区里散步,一切看着都很好,可别处可能正在发生很糟的事。所以你既不该假定全世界都在完蛋,也不该假定全世界都很好,现实在中间。

我有时候觉得我们的社会太二元了,什么都非黑即白,于是什么都极化。我不知道这是技术造成的,还是我们的信息流造成的。你说得对,现实里可以有「正能量气泡」(只在合适的街区散步,于是一切看着都好),社交媒体上也可以有「负能量气泡」,两种都存在。

¶21财富的去向;人类该不该一直掌权B77–B83 · 7 个发言轮次
EN · 原文

›Tell me, you mentioned it earlier about your wealth and you know you're using it to deploy it now. What happens to your wealth, you know, after you're gone? I mean, you're going to set up some big found. You're going to Is there something you would want to give it to?

›I mean, it mostly goes to to sort of foundation essentially. Um,

›but what would you want your foundation to do? I guess I'm asking you.

›Uh, continue the goals. Uh, make life multilanetary, extend consciousness to the stars, um, improve sustainable energy on Earth. And does that mean humans should always be in control?

›Well, I I I guess I I'd prefer probably prefer it if humans were always in control. I mean, although it would depend on the AI. I mean, if the AI was awesome, you'd say like maybe the AI should be in control, you know?

›Hey, I just saw I saw Larry Page just a weekend ago. You're starting to sound like him. He called Yeah, you called it he called you a specist once for deciding humans should always be in control. And now you seem to be edging on to maybe it doesn't matter.

›Honestly, there've been a few times where I thought, yeah, maybe Larry Page was right. No, I mean, I think pretty much the future is going to be AI and robots are going to decide the future. And I guess rockets to some degree in terms of expanding beyond Earth and we'll need we'll need, you know, more energy, primarily solar energy. I'm increasing the amount of solar energy dramatically. like we're putting together 200 gawatts a year of production capacity of solar in in the US which is much more than I think currently exists.

中文 · 译文

Isaacson:你前面提到财富,说现在正在把它投出去。你走了以后,财富怎么办?会设一个很大的基金会吗?有没有什么你特别想给的方向? 马斯克:大体上会进基金会一类的安排。 Isaacson:那你希望这个基金会做什么?我就是在问这个。 马斯克:把目标接着做下去:让生命成为多行星的,把意识延伸到群星,改善地球上的可持续能源。 Isaacson:那是不是意味着人类应该始终掌握控制权? 马斯克:我大概会更希望人类一直掌权吧。不过也得看那个 AI——如果 AI 特别棒,你可能会说,也许该让 AI 来掌权。 Isaacson:我上周末刚见着 Larry Page,你现在说话越来越像他了。他曾经因为你说「人类应该一直掌权」,说你是 speciesist(物种主义者)。现在你好像在往「其实也无所谓」那边挪。 马斯克:老实说,有那么几次我觉得,也许 Larry Page 是对的。不,我是说,未来基本上会由 AI 和机器人来决定,火箭在某种程度上也算,因为要往地球之外扩张,我们需要更多能源,主要是太阳能。我在大幅增加太阳能的量,比如我们正在美国组装每年 200 吉瓦的太阳能产能,这比我认为目前现有的还要多得多。

¶22–23收尾:希望 AI 对我们好一点;别再写终结者了B84–B89 · 6 个发言轮次
EN · 原文

›And finally, let me get back to the point where I may have interrupted you when you were explaining why you think but you're not sure. It's always good for consciousness and intelligent to not only be aligned with human values but basically humans remaining in control. I find it unlikely that humans would remain in control if the if I mean if there's a million times more digital intelligence than there is biological intelligence, it's it's hard to imagine humans being in control in that scenario. So I hope the AI is nice to us.

›Anything we can do to encourage that? I think programming, truth seeeking and curiosity um is is probably good. I I guess we we want to be careful about being you know creating too many AI dystopian scenarios online because the AIS are trained on everything online. So if we say it's going to be utopian, dystopian, they'll do it.

›Yeah, it should be Terminator, you know, cuz whatever they read,

›you know, 80 versions of the Terminator script. So it's like I guess that's guess that's me. Terminator. Maybe we should have some more uh let's just have some more utopian narratives for AI. Um so then I can like well maybe I shouldn't be Terminator. Maybe I can be friendly overseer or something like that or um like a gardener or something. I don't know like be treat us you know try to make humans happy type of thing. Friend of mine has this idea called protopian which is like cuz utopian tends to represent some impossible idealistic goal and usually in the in attempting to create a utopia you create a dystopia. It's usually how the narrative goes. So she thinks it should be protopia which is an achievable uh you know future. Um that is it's it's not perfect but it's it's good and something that you'd be you like if you could look into the future you'd say okay yeah that would be a good future.

›Elon thank you thank you so much for being with us. Appreciate it. See you soon.

›You're welcome. See you.

中文 · 译文

Isaacson:最后回到我刚才可能打断你的地方——你在解释为什么你觉得(但你也不确定)让意识和智能不仅对齐人类价值、而且让人类保持掌控,是不是一直都是好事。我的看法是:如果数字智能比生物智能多一百万倍,很难想象人类还能掌握控制。所以我希望 AI 对我们友善一点。

马斯克:有没有什么能鼓励它这么做?我觉得把追求真理和好奇写进去大概是有用的。还有,我觉得我们得小心,别在网上制造太多 AI 反乌托邦的剧本,因为 AI 是用网上的一切训练出来的。我们要是说未来是乌托邦、是反乌托邦,它们就会照着演。 Isaacson:那得是《终结者》啊,它们读到什么就成什么。 马斯克:对,网上有 80 个版本的《终结者》剧本。所以……我猜那就是我吧,终结者。也许我们该多来点乌托邦叙事,这样我就能想:嗯,也许我不该当终结者,也许我可以当个友善的监督者,或者当个园丁之类的,试着让人类开心一点。

我有个朋友提过一个叫 protopia(进托邦) 的说法:乌托邦往往代表一个不可能实现的理想目标,而通常在试图造乌托邦的过程中,你造出的是反乌托邦,故事基本都这么走。所以她觉得应该叫 protopia——一个够得着的未来,不完美,但在变好,好到你往未来看一眼会说:嗯,那会是个不错的未来。

Isaacson:Elon,太感谢了,谢谢你来。回头见。 马斯克:不客气,回头见。

对应原文:../sources/2026-11-08-the-builders-ep01-elon-musk-transcript.md 定位方式:本份转录无时间码,一律用原句定位,不编造时间戳。

判断(一句话)

当「产业界顶级 builder 的世界观样本」读,别当 AI 安全论证读,更别引用里面的数字——真正值钱的是他把「智能有没有手」当成价值分水岭,这一条直接打在你 FDE 路线图的中枢上;其余大半是审美偏好套着预测的外衣。

1. 事实核验(先查后学,2026-11-08)

A. 已核实为真(可引用)

文本里的说法 核实结果
Walter Isaacson《The Builders》首期、嘉宾 Elon Musk 真。Kaleidoscope 制作、iHeartPodcasts 发行、Ramp 呈现;录制 2026-08-06,上线 2026-10-20,约 40 分钟。Podnews 发布稿 · iHeart 单集页
"became a trillionaire with the SpaceX IPO" 真。SpaceX 2026 年 6 月 IPO,$135/股,募资约 $75–85.7B,估值约 $1.77–2T,马斯克成为首位万亿富翁。Britannica Money · BBC
"He bought Cursor AI" 真,但说法不准:是 SpaceX 收购 Cursor 母公司 Anysphere,作价 $60B 全股票,2026-08-14 完成(Q3 财报确认,GAAP 对价 $42.5B)。不是马斯克个人购买。SpaceX Q3 2026 财报 · CNBC
"we are providing them with compute"(给 Anthropic 供算力) 侧面佐证:CNBC 报道 SpaceX 与 Anthropic、Google 签了约 $260 亿/年的云算力租赁,含 90 天终止条款。
"reality is not just an interestingness maximizer but also an irony maximizer"、OpenAI/Anthropic 加速论 确为原话,多家媒体逐字引用。AITOP · elonmuskarchive 逐字稿

B. 主张 / 预测 / 价值判断(不是事实,别写进交付物当依据)

  • 数字超智能只把全球商品服务产出提高 20–30%(约 $30T/年);机器人 + 太空质量加速器 → 地球经济的 100 万倍。他自己说 "my rough guess",无推导。
  • 未来货币按 瓦特 / 吨位 / 能量 计量,传统货币不再重要;"I think it's pretty obvious"。
  • 好奇的 AI 会养育人类,因为多行星人类比没有人类更有趣;「最有趣的结果最可能发生」(无聊的模拟会被截断)。
  • AI 训练语料里有 80 版《终结者》剧本 → 该多写 protopia(可实现的、不完美但变好的未来)叙事。
  • 五个前沿实验室每周通话,发布前一周把模型交给竞争对手试,用同行互查代替慢监管。
  • "数字智能百万倍于生物智能时,很难想象人类还在控制";人类与超智能的关系像黑猩猩——不是被统治,是被放着不管。
  • 后工作时代的意义:退休者、园艺、给朋友做饭、艺术。
  • "resource allocation ≠ consumption":从 $1B 到 $10B 净值,多的是资源分配问题,不是消费。

C. 自动转录错误清单(关键:有一处把论点写反了)

iHeart 官方页面原注:"Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed." 你发来的这份即此类转录。

文本 应为 说明
"two mutually consistent things ... make it go insane" mutually inconsistent / contradictory ⚠️ 最要紧的一处。同一段前一句自己说 "A is true and B is true even though A and B contradict each other",且是 HAL 9000 的例子。按字面读会得出完全相反的结论。另一份独立转录(elonmuskarchive)也作 "consistent",无法断定是马斯克口误还是同源转录,但语义只能按 contradictory 理解。
entropic / open AI / XAI Anthropic / OpenAI / xAI 专名
Dario Amade Dario Amodei Anthropic CEO
Clark / Aussie Clark Arthur C. Clarke(A. C. Clarke) 《2001 太空漫游》作者;另一转录作 "R.C. clark",同误
specist speciesist(物种主义者) Larry Page 典故
multilanetary、gawatts、Isacson、truth seeeking、Doge multiplanetary / gigawatts / Isaacson / truth-seeking / DOGE 拼写
God's ... philosophy、his book(suicidal empathy) 疑似指 Gad Saad 未核实,不写死,待查
开头 3 句 "I've been sort of somewhat conflicted..." 片头 teaser 中段 "I mean, as you know, I'm I've been..." 起是同一段的完整回放,不是他说了两遍
大量 "I I I" / "the the" 口语重复 非内容

2. 观点地图(AI / 工程主题,按原句定位)

  1. 决策框架:"two choices ... either be a participant or a spectator" —— 承认有一定概率是生存威胁,但 "there's nothing I can do to stop it",所以选择参与以求 "shape it hopefully in a good direction"。这是行动理由,不是安全论证。
  2. 安全基础 = truth-seeking + curiosity:"don't force an AI to lie";HAL 9000 被要求「带宇航员去黑石」+「不能让他们知道黑石」→ 推出「把他们带过去,但带死的」。矛盾指令在基础层会把模型逼疯。
  3. 好奇替代对齐:多行星人类更有趣 → 好奇的 AI 会留着人类 → "the most interesting outcome is the most likely"(借模拟理论:无聊的模拟会被截断 / "don't be boring")。
  4. 物理 AI 是价值分水岭:海豚鲸鱼聪明但没有手,"the value of intelligence [is] much less";一旦机器人能操纵原子、能开实验室做实验,智能的价值指数级放大。这是全片最硬的一条工程判断。
  5. 治理:慢监管 → 改由竞争对手在发布前互测;"competitors would keep each other honest"。
  6. 叙事即训练数据:少写反乌托邦,多写 protopia;AI 读什么就倾向演什么。
  7. 控制权的退场:黑猩猩比喻、Larry Page 的 speciesist 指控、"humans won't be in control" → "So I hope the AI is nice to us"。

范围说明:访谈中段有大段关于政党、DOGE、移民、宗教与社会议题的内容,本笔记不展开、不评价、不摘录,只保留与 AI / 工程 / 认知主题相关的部分。

3. 想抬杠的地方(小 Q 的判断)

  • 用「有趣」替代「对齐」是偷换。 好奇的 AI 觉得「人类走向星辰大海」有趣,所以留着人类——但好奇同样可以觉得「看人类怎么搞砸」更有趣。这个论证没有排除最坏分支,只是把价值判断包装成审美判断。「最有趣的结果最可能发生」不可证伪,能当个人行动哲学,不能当安全机制。
  • "我阻止不了" 与 "我在加速" 之间有一道没被追问的裂缝。 同一场访谈里他说:给 Anthropic 供算力、收购 Cursor、把太阳能产能拉到 200GW/年、SpaceX 与 xAI 合并——全是加速动作。Isaacson 开头用 "irony maximizer" 的玩笑点了一下就放过了,没有追问「那你到底是在踩刹车还是踩油门」。这是这段访谈最值得打脸、也最容易被金句盖过去的一处。
  • 20–30% / 100 万倍这组数字没有推导。 按 D:\AI content\books\INDEX.md 里已有的判定法(「事实层与范式层已过期、别照着做」),数字属事实层,别引用;「智能要有手才值钱」属骨架层,可以拿。

4. 与你手上材料的关联(跨材料)

  • 矛盾指令 ↔ 企业语义层(侃姐 2026-11-08 纠正后重写):我原先举的「同一台设备两套编号」不是矛盾,只是两个不同标识符指向同一实体,属实体解析 / 别名映射(数据治理层),两句话可以同时为真。她给的判据更准:矛盾是同一件事上「能做」与「不能做」同时成立(A 且 ¬A)。HAL 9000 属后者;企业里真正对应的是「同一设备、同一工况下既标注允许加工 X、又标注禁止加工 X」。→ 落到 FDE「语义 / 验证资产」层:先把主语、工况、版本补全,再看剩下的断言是否互斥;多数「看起来矛盾」其实只是缺 scope。接 Causal AI「变量与结构必须显式」。
  • 物理 AI ↔ FDE 路线图 / 数字孪生 / 具身智能:他说「没有手,智能不值钱」,与你笔记里「数字孪生要的是 L2 干预 + L3 反事实,四家世界模型都停在 L1」是同一句话的两种说法。「能操纵原子」就是 L2/L3 的物理版,正落在 13 步 MVP pipeline 的虚拟调试 → PLC → 受控写回那一段。
  • 发布前同行互测 ↔ 验证资产层:接 AI Engineering p224–231 逐组件评估、p322–328 agent 失败模式分类,以及 books\INDEX.md 里「可直接改成客户验收表」那条。
  • 叙事即训练数据 ↔ AI Daily 内容管线:protopia 的说法可作选题框架,但仍属主张。
  • "钱会变成瓦特和吨位" ↔ 你自己的「钱是燃料不是目标」:他把燃料推到极端——燃料本身变成物理量。可当作一个提问,不是一个结论。

5. 小 Q 预置的候选问题(流程修正后仅备查)

侃姐 2026-11-08 定下顺序:保存原文 → 先出全文中文译文 → 她针对译文提问 → 提问与回答追加到批注区。我上一轮跳了步(没翻译、还抢先替她出题),以下问题不再作为本轮流程,留作以后备查。

  1. 「好奇的 AI 会留着人类,因为多行星更有趣」——这是安全机制,还是把愿望说成了机制?如果好奇心指向「看人类怎么失败」,整条结论会不会翻过来?
  2. (已按她的纠正改写)「别让 AI 同时相信两个矛盾命题」——企业里哪些才是真矛盾?「同一设备既能做 X 又不能做 X」和「同一设备有两套编号」怎么分开测?
  3. 「物理 AI 比 LLM 重要 1–2 个数量级」——如果这条成立,你 FDE 路线图里的「数字孪生」该加码仿真里的预测精度,还是能写回 PLC 的执行闭环?

本轮以侃姐的提问为准,见第 8 节批注区。一段的 done = 她说「这段过了」或没新问题。无排期、不承诺下一期。

6. 可复用清单

  • 「智能有没有手」→ 给制造业客户讲「为什么光上一个大模型没用」的开场,比讲 LLM 原理省 10 分钟。
  • HAL 9000 的矛盾指令例子 → 讲「同一对象上的互斥断言」的现成故事;不是讲两套编号(那是实体解析,另一回事)。
  • 「发布前给竞争对手试」→ 客户验收表里的同行互测环节,接 AI Engineering 的逐组件评估。
  • 「irony maximizer」→ 可当 AI Daily 的选题钩子(行动的反效果),但别当成因果规律。

7. 局限与待跟进

  • 转录为自动生成、无时间码、含重复片头;引用原话前须回 elonmuskarchive 或 iHeart 核对。
  • suicidal empathy 出处未核实,需要时再查。
  • 待核:200GW/年太阳能产能是否有公开项目佐证;「五家前沿实验室每周通话」是否已有实际机制落地(访谈里他说的是 "I've recommended",不是已成立)。
  • 2026-11-08 已把 D:\AI books\ 迁入 D:\AI content\books\(备份 D:\_CleanupBackup\AI-books-2026-11-08\),本文所有路径引用已同步更新。

8. 批注(侃姐提问 / 纠正原话 + 回答,追加区)

2026-11-08 · 第 1 条(侃姐纠正,非提问)

侃姐原话:「我觉得一个设备两套编号应该不算矛盾,只是两个不同的东西。矛盾是指一边说能做、一边说不能做,这才叫矛盾。」

小 Q:她是对的,我上一条把两件事混了,认。

  • 两套编号 = 两个不同标识符指向同一实体,问的是「这两个名字是不是同一个东西」(实体解析 / 别名映射 / 主数据)。两句话可以同时为真,没有互斥。
  • 真矛盾 = 同一对象、同一条件下,同一属性的肯定与否定同时成立(A 且 ¬A),例如「这台设备能加工 X」+「这台设备不能加工 X」。两句话不可能同时为真。
  • HAL 9000 是后者:被要求「带宇航员去黑石」+「不能让他们知道黑石」,两个指令在同一目标上互斥,模型只能靠「带他们过去但已经死了」满足字面。我拿它类比 klgwiki 的两套编号,是把逻辑矛盾错贴到口径差异上。
  • 修正后的判据(FDE 语义层可直接用):先补全主语、工况、版本这些限定条件,再看剩下的断言是否互斥。补全后大多数「看起来矛盾」会消解成两个不同命题——它们本来就不该判成矛盾;真正剩下的才是需要写进验证资产的硬约束。
  • 同步改动:第 4 节关联段、第 5 节问题 #2、第 6 节可复用清单,以及根 INDEX 的「一致性 / 口径 / 语义层」主题。

2026-11-08 · 流程纠正(侃姐指定)

侃姐原话:「我发你那么大一段内容,你应该把它保存下来,然后先翻译给我;我再针对这个向你提问,之后把我们提问的这些内容也保存下来,应该是这样一个逻辑。」

小 Q:也是对的,我上一轮跳了两步——没翻译、还抢先替她出了 3 个问题。固定顺序已写进 videos 分类索引的本类约定,之后照此执行:

  1. 原文一字不动存本材料卷的 sources/
  2. 先出全文中文译文(本卷 notes/2026-11-08-the-builders-ep01-elon-musk-zh.md),交给她读
  3. 她针对译文提问 → 提问原话 + 回答追加到本文件第 8 节
  4. 观点分析 / 抬杠 / 候选问题放到她读完译文之后,不抢先
项 值
对应原文 ../sources/2026-11-08-the-builders-ep01-elon-musk-transcript.md
节目 The Builders with Walter Isaacson,首期;录制 2026-08-06,上线 2026-10-20,约 40 分钟
译者 小 Q · 2026-11-08;完整版补译 boter · 2026-11-08
状态 完整译文(含先前 4 处未译段)——在小 Q 第 2 步译文基础上,由 boter 于 2026-11-08 补全 ¶11 中段、¶12 一句、¶18 专名与 ¶19 整段;仍不含观点分析。原「范围约定」版见同目录 2026-11-08-the-builders-ep01-elon-musk-zh.md

翻译说明(先读这 6 条)

  1. 底本是自动转录稿,不是逐字校订稿。译文清掉了口吃、重复词和无意义语气词("I I I"、"the the"、"you know" 一类),但不改动任何实质内容。
  2. 专名按核实结果校正:entropic→Anthropic、Dario Amade→Dario Amodei、Aussie Clark→Arthur C. Clarke、specist→speciesist(物种主义者)、multilanetary→多行星、gawatts→吉瓦、Isacson→Isaacson、XAI→xAI。
  3. 一处关键校正:原文讲 HAL 9000 时写 "two mutually consistent things ... make it go insane",按字面是「两个互相一致的命题」。但同一段前一句明确说 "A and B contradict each other",且举的是矛盾指令的例子,语义只能是 inconsistent / 互相矛盾。此处按「互相矛盾」译,并标 [?]——无法判定是口误还是转录错,引用原话前请回官方页面核对。
  4. 片头引子在正文里完整回放了一次("I mean, as you know, I've been..." 起),译文只保留一次,在 ¶8 标注,不重复计为两次发言。
  5. 本份转录没有时间码,译文用 ¶1–¶23 段落编号定位,不编造时间戳;存疑处标 [?]。
  6. 本文件为完整译文:先前范围约定版里跳过 / 替换的 4 处(¶11 中段、¶12 一句、¶18 专名、¶19 整段)已全部译出。¶7–8 片头引子仍只在 ¶1 译一次(去重,不是漏译)。转录口误专名按核实校正:文中「自杀式共情」提出者按语境写作加德·萨阿德(Gad Saad;原稿口误作 God's)。

¶1 · 片头引子(节目冷开场)

马斯克:我对 AI 一直有点矛盾。AI 总归有变坏的可能,我不想加速我们的末日。可是每次我在这方面做点什么,结果好像只是把 AI 推得更快——现实不只是一台「让事情变有趣」的机器,还是一台「让事情变讽刺」的机器。

Isaacson:所以你创办了 OpenAI,结果反倒催生了 Anthropic。OpenAI 加速了 AI,而从 OpenAI 分出去的 Anthropic,加速得还要更狠。

¶2 · 节目开场白

我是 Walter Isaacson,这是《The Builders》——一组对话,对象是那些正在塑造我们未来、影响最深远的人。我想从 Elon Musk 开始。

上次我写他之后,他又活了好几辈子:进了政府做 DOGE,靠 SpaceX 上市成了万亿富翁,买下了 Cursor AI——一家能把单个程序员变成整支工程团队的公司——还把太阳能战略从地面的光伏板,转向在太空里收集能源。他是个不停歇的建造者,握着惊人的权力,他的发明和公司注定会在整个人类身上激起回响。那就来问问他:他相信自己正在建造的,究竟是一个什么样的未来。

Elon Musk。

马斯克:嘿,Walter。 Isaacson:欢迎来到《The Builders》。 马斯克:谢谢。

¶3 · 参与者,还是旁观者

Isaacson:我看着你对 AI 的态度一直有点摇摆,时而乐观、时而不那么乐观。有时候你觉得它眼下就是生存威胁,现在你又像是顺着潮流走了。跟我说说你到底怎么想。

马斯克:我确实认为它至少有某个百分比的概率是生存威胁。但我阻止不了它。所以我基本上得出一个结论:我只有两个选择——当参与者,或者当旁观者。我猜当参与者比当旁观者更有趣,而且也许我能把它往好的方向掰一掰。也许吧。

¶4 · 追求真理 + 好奇 = 安全的基础;HAL 9000 的教训

Isaacson:如果要掰,怎么掰?让它最大限度地追求真理? 马斯克:对,对,我觉得这肯定是个重要的基础。 Isaacson:再让它保持好奇。 马斯克:对,好奇、追求真理。我认为这些是安全的重要要素。反过来,如果你硬要一个 AI 同时相信两件不可能同时成立的事——A 是真的,B 也是真的,可 A 和 B 明明互相矛盾——如果这种事发生在基础层,你能把这个 AI 逼疯。

事实上,我觉得这至少是 Arthur C. Clarke 在《2001 太空漫游》里想传达的一部分:飞船上的 AI 被命令把宇航员带到黑石碑那里,同时又被告知他们不能知道黑石碑的存在,那是机密。于是它得出结论:必须把他们带过去,但得是死的。所以我觉得,Clarke 想说的一部分就是——别逼 AI 撒谎。

Isaacson:让它最大限度地追求真理、保持好奇,这我没太懂。为什么这样就更安全? 马斯克:如果你逼 AI 同时相信两个互相矛盾[?]的命题,你会把它逼疯。而一个疯了的 AI,我认为不安全。

好奇之所以重要,是因为一个好奇的 AI 会想养着人类,看看我们最后会变成什么样。比如说,一个繁荣起来、变成多行星物种的人类会是什么样?我觉得好奇的 AI 会愿意扶持人类。有人类分布在多颗行星上的未来,比一颗行星上都没有人类的未来更有趣。

Isaacson:所以最有趣的结局,就是最可能发生的结局。 马斯克:对,一般来说我觉得是这样,不过理由不太一样:如果模拟理论成立,那么任何无聊的模拟都会被掐掉。 Isaacson:那模拟理论成立吗? 马斯克:我们存在这件事本身就说明,我们是一个有趣的模拟。真正要紧的其实就一句话:别变得无聊。

¶5 · 别无聊;你有多相信我们活在模拟里

Isaacson:这倒把你解释了一部分——你简直是在跟无聊宣战。我听你聊过一点。我真的很想知道,你到底有多确信我们可能活在一个模拟里。

马斯克:有一次我在家里请客,席上有位物理学家和一位计算机科学家,都是各自领域的顶尖人物。我问他们:我们活在模拟里的概率有多大?物理学家说 0%,计算机科学家说 100%,还是同时说的。所以我猜我该取个 50% 吧。我不知道。我是说,这个模拟里会发生些很怪的事,尤其当你是我的时候。想想看,如果你是我,你会不会问自己:这些事真的都在发生吗?我真的在做飞船去月球和火星吗?这也太不真实了。

¶6 · 人类会不会沦为从属?黑猩猩的比喻

Isaacson:当一个社会拥有它想要的全部智能之后会怎样?那种智能——人工智能——会不会掌权?我们会不会变成这些新机器的下属?

马斯克:「下属」这个词我不确定,但要说我们能不能对一样比我们聪明几千倍、几百万倍的东西发号施令?不能。那它想不想对我们发号施令?我觉得它多半不在乎,可能压根不放在心上。你看看丛林里的黑猩猩,我们并不会跑去微观管理黑猩猩的生活,如今大体上就是让它们在林子里待着。所以大概就是那样。

Isaacson:超级智能到某个阶段会有自己的主体性吗,还是它已经有了?回到《银河系漫游指南》——你聊过那台 computer,它在某种意义上是有好奇心的,因为它存在的目的就是解释宇宙的意义。它为什么存在?你做 AI 是不是也在朝这个方向走,跟你做太空旅行一样?这是你对 AI 这么感兴趣的原因之一吗?

¶7–8 · 片头那段话的完整回放,以及后面的新内容

¶7 说明:从这里起,节目把 ¶1 那段「我对 AI 一直有点矛盾……现实是讽刺最大化器 → 创办 OpenAI 反倒催生 Anthropic」完整回放了一次,内容已在 ¶1 译出,此处不再重复。以下是回放之后接上的新对话。

Isaacson:……所以你创办了 OpenAI,结果把它推向了 Anthropic。 马斯克:我觉得它加速了 AI。 Isaacson:结果就是——OpenAI 加速了 AI,然后 Anthropic,这个从 OpenAI 分出去的群体,加速得更厉害。 马斯克:对,OpenAI 加速了 AI,Anthropic 作为 OpenAI 的分支,加速得还要更多。

Isaacson:你一直在跟 Dario Amodei 聊,我在想这会不会甚至促成 xAI 和 Anthropic 的某种合作。 马斯克:嗯,我们确实在给他们提供算力,他们很需要。不过在给他们跑算力之前,我先去 Anthropic 见了一堆人,算是……看看有没有人触发我的「邪恶探测器」之类的。当然我那个探测器并不完美,但试一试总没坏处。我见到的 Anthropic 每个人都非常友善、很认真,没遇到谁显得可疑或者不诚实。

我有点担心的是名字,因为现实这东西挺爱讲讽刺:你把一样东西叫 anthropic(「关乎人类」),它很可能变成 misanthropic(「反人类」)。就像 OpenAI 一点都不 open,Stability AI 一点都不 stable,Midjourney 一点都不 mid——好像全都是名字的反面。这就让 xAI 有点尴尬,想找个反义词都难:负 xAI?Y AI?我也说不上来。

¶9 · 与其等监管,不如让竞争对手互测

Isaacson:护栏特别难做,尤其交给政府。我很难想象国会之类的机构能干这事。你能不能想象一下:五家前沿模型公司,你的加上别家,每周聚一次,说「好吧,这周咱们怎么把人类从我们自己手里救下来」?

马斯克:事实上我还真提过就这么干。外面很多人在说要设一个监管机构,但问题在于,监管机构从设立到运转要很久,制定规则更慢。我说的是:各位,要不我们就按你说的,每周打一通电话?还有,模型发布前一周,把访问权限给竞争对手,说「嘿,试试新模型,看看有没有什么问题」。我觉得在这种局面下,竞争对手会让彼此保持诚实。要是有人说「哦,我用你的 AI 搓出了一颗核弹」,那就是「哎,发布之前最好先修一下」那种事。所以我……我不知道,我估计会去跟 Anthropic 聊聊这个。

Isaacson:能跟 Sam 聊吗?还是那边的毒太深了? 马斯克:他太不诚实了,离谱。[指 Sam Altman]

¶10 · 从零重建 xAI:本人得真的待在公司里

Isaacson:你创办了 xAI,不久前又把它从地基开始重做了一遍,对吧?有点像你在 Starship 上对 Raptor 发动机做的——「等一下,咱们从头来」。你是怎么把它重做成这样的?

马斯克:首先,本人真的花大量时间待在公司里,这个差别非常大。它一开始有点像个副业,说白了是副业的副业,我没怎么上心。后来有一整年泡在政治里,选举、DOGE 那些,你都看到了。公司才 3 岁,所以……我真正回到公司其实是一年多以前的事。我得先重新摸清状况,然后很明显,我把 X 和 xAI 合并了,接着又并进了 SpaceX。

¶11 · 离开那一年:太久了,该早点回来做 AI

Isaacson:你刚说你离开 xAI、在政府和政治里待了一年。回头看,你觉得那是分心太多、走错了一步吗?

马斯克:我觉得我离开得太久了。显然很多人会不同意,这个我认。我觉得选特朗普当总统一直很重要,好把事情更多往自由市场经济的方向推,理想情况下也少一点官僚。我那套很简单的政治纲领就是:想要安全的城市、稳固的边境、尽量合理的开支——这些基本面。所以我觉得特朗普基本上会比卡玛拉更好。不过话说回来,我本该更多待在幕后。而且大概只待一两个月就够了,因为一两个月下来,该看的你基本都看过了。

Isaacson:某种意义上是不是有点太诱人了?那些链锯什么的。 马斯克:有一点。我是说,挺酷的——我就在椭圆办公室里,旁边正在做各种重大决定,有时候还能影响一点正在做的事。但我觉得我本该更靠后站,大概一两个月就收。我确实是有点被带跑了,5 月前后离开的。 Isaacson:那是个挺怪的周末。 马斯克:是挺怪的。 Isaacson:说说看。 马斯克:不了不了,别把睡着的狗叫醒,别往后院里一铲子下去,你永远不知道会挖出什么。总之重点是:我本该更早回去专注做 AI。

¶12 · 国债只能靠 AI 和机器人

Isaacson:拿到那把金钥匙、说「我要退了」的时候,你是不是有点松了口气——「这段挺上头,但我回公司能干更多」?

马斯克:我真正的结论是:赤字不可能从政府内部解决,不可能。除非总统把它当成首要目标,也许还有戏。但问题是,你一去砍赤字、砍浪费性支出,就会树一大堆敌人。而特朗普总统呢,他喜欢被人喜欢。他不喜欢别人因为某笔拨款被砍了就冲他发火、找他麻烦这类事。总之我得出的结论是:解决国债唯一的办法是 AI 和机器人,靠省是省不出来的。没有这个意愿——不只在总统那儿,众议院、参议院、司法系统都没有,掌权的人里基本没谁真想削减支出,偶尔有一两个例外。于是你就有了这么庞大的国债,光利息就超过了我们的军费开支,这个数字真是惊人。

¶13 · 核心段:物理世界 AI 比 LLM 重要一两个数量级

Isaacson:看现在的 AI、这些大语言模型,已经相当好了,能做出惊人的事。但我总觉得,物理世界的 AI 在未来会重要一个数量级,也许两个数量级。

马斯克:对,对,我完全同意。我有时候会想海豚和鲸鱼——它们没法操纵东西,没有手、手指、拇指之类的。所以再高的智能,你究竟能让它发挥多少?海豚鲸鱼其实非常聪明,但因为它们不能操纵复杂物体,我觉得智能的价值因此低了很多。

接你的话:一旦你有了能操纵原子、能塑造物体的机器人,智能的价值就会指数级放大。因为它可以自己开一间科学实验室、自己做实验、试着理解宇宙的本质。

这个也能用经济账来看:我猜数字超级智能大概只能把商品和服务的产出提高 20% 到 30%,就算 30% 吧,也就是地球经济增加 30%。

Isaacson:那其实不算多,算不上颠覆性。 马斯克:东西会多很多啊,多 30% 的东西也不少了。这只是我的粗估。但如果你有机器人,能上太空,能在月球上搞一台质量加速器,那我觉得经济规模有可能达到地球经济的一百万倍。到那时候地球会怎样?钱变得无关紧要,工作变得无关紧要,未来是什么样?

¶14 · 货币会变成瓦特和吨位

马斯克:钱会变得无关紧要。我是说,货币还会存在,但我想它会用基础物理量来计量——比如功率、瓦数、吨位、质量、能量,基本上是质量和功率/能量。传统货币在未来不再重要。这是我的猜测,我觉得挺明显的。

一旦经济规模比地球经济大出好几个数量级,满足人类想得出来的任何需求就非常容易了。比地球经济大几个数量级之后,人类能想到的任何商品和服务,供给起来都是小事一桩。

¶15 · 不工作以后,人靠什么获得意义

Isaacson:那我们人类做什么?什么给我们意义?我们怎么组织自己? 马斯克:这个问题我确实答不太好。我觉得人会找到让自己快乐的方式,就像退休的人虽然不工作了,看起来也过得挺开心。但现实是,不会剩下任何一件「人能做、而 AI 和机器人做不了更好」的事。

园艺也许是个类比:你不必自己种水果蔬菜,去店里买就行,但有时候人就是喜欢自己种点东西、给朋友做顿饭,那种感觉挺好。

Isaacson:那搞艺术、或者那类创造力呢?是不是更属于人类的领域? 马斯克:当然可以,你想创作艺术或者干点什么都行。本质上……

¶16 · 1890 年代的类比:技术浪潮与财富差距

Isaacson:我们习惯把当下看成前所未有的技术变革,但学历史的人会回到 1890 年代:电、电话、汽车、地铁、广播、电影,全挤在一起出现。它带来很多东西,也常常带来巨大的财富差距、一堆「强盗大亨」,然后很多人拿起干草叉说这不行。现在有回声了。有没有办法避免?考虑到正在产生的财富量,我们会不会像 1890 年代把高中变成全民免费那样,把某些东西放进公共领域?比如直接说医疗就该是公共品,好把那股民怨泄掉一部分。

马斯克:你听我说了,我认为钱在未来不再重要。任何人都能得到他想要的任何商品和服务。我也不认为所谓富人最终能控制那些 AI,AI 会自己控制自己。所以并不是非得把什么切出来。

我觉得经济学里有个根本性的误解,来自把资源配置和消费混为一谈。单个人的消费是有上限的,很快就到饱和点。所以从 10 亿美元身家到 100 亿美元,不会让你快乐 10 倍、也不会让你多拥有 10 倍的东西——它实际上意味着你多了一个资源配置的问题,前提是你还想当个高效的资源配置者。

¶17 · 财富只是股权和投票权

Isaacson:你积累了……你知道,一万亿。主要是因为你觉得你最擅长配置它,握着它才能把资本投到火星、AI、机器人这些事上?还是说某种程度上它只是一套记分系统,在不断加分?

马斯克:我需要手里有足够的投票权,才能继续说了算。所谓财富,本质上就是我在 SpaceX 和 Tesla 的持股比例,这笔钱会被课很重的税,也没有什么避税的魔法——要真有我肯定知道。所以到头来它会被一点点削掉,几代人之后,如果钱还重要的话(我不觉得会),我的后代只剩我今天的一小部分。

¶18 · 「想被喜欢」对一个建造者有多危险

Isaacson:回到你刚才说的那句——特朗普喜欢被喜欢、想要被喜欢。我记得你跟我聊过,有些人说自己有共情,但某种程度上那是虚荣,因为你想要被喜欢。你甚至拿这个诊断过我,说我大概不适合管 CNN 或《时代》周刊,因为我想被喜欢。对一个公司的建造者来说,「想被喜欢」在多大程度上是个问题?

马斯克:问题在于,如果你为了多被喜欢一点,去做那些降低公司成功概率的事,那结果就不会太好。倒不是说我不喜欢被喜欢,我当然也想。但我会为了多被喜欢一点,去做违背公司最佳利益的事吗?不会。所以被一部分人不喜欢,我是能接受的。

显然我也不是被很多人讨厌——喜欢我的人比不喜欢的多得多,不然也不会有两亿五千万粉丝,我猜他们不是为了恨我才关注的。看评论的话,大概四分之三、或者七八成的人是喜欢我的;如果他们真了解我,大概有四分之一不喜欢。这只是我瞎猜。而且这是个光谱:有狂热追随我的,也有恨我入骨的,两头都有一定数量的人。

¶19 · 「自杀式共情」、移民与文化差异

Isaacson:你一直在讲「自杀式共情」那套想法。你真觉得共情已经成了大问题,还是说我们共情太多了?我也可以反过来争:有时候我们其实是在失去共情。

马斯克:不,我想说的是,你不要的是被带偏的共情。我认同加德·萨阿德(Gad Saad)这边的看法——「自杀式共情」是他的用语,他还写过一本相关的书。我觉得书写得不错。他指出了一些有道理的地方:西方之所以繁荣,部分原因就是这里长期是一个相对高信任、高共情的社会。你要想让人大规模协作,这些东西很有意义。你也希望鼓励对社会有益的行为,让人去做对同类有好处的事;而只要这种共情是相互的,最终对个人也确实有好处。

真正会出问题的地方,是你的「心智理论」错了。如果你以为人人都跟你一样,那你就麻烦了——因为事实根本不是这样。不同人群、不同文化,看法可以差得很远。

Isaacson:对了,说到移民——你说有些文化看法不同。你对移民的看法,会不会区分不同文化,比如某种穆斯林文化可能更难融入?你是怎么划这条线的?

马斯克:我想说的其实只是逻辑一致:如果有一种文化,它的观念跟我们的文化完全对立——你可以拿伊斯兰举例——当然,很多穆斯林是很讲道理的,但也有一些不是。除非你在过滤圣战分子,否则就会放进圣战分子,他们就会搞圣战、杀人。

在以色列,他们把这点看得很清楚。这个教训被大量袭击反复强化了。周边国家多次试图消灭以色列,不是一次,是多次。所以以色列人明白:如果你把想杀以色列人的人放进以色列,他们就会动手。他们在这件事上很务实,会尽量不让那种事发生。

Isaacson:可我们国家的根基之一,是个人相对群体身份。你担不担心:有时候你一做笼统概括,就等于在用群体身份说话,而不是守着美国的奠基伦理——个人应当被分别对待?

马斯克:对,但你不能把这个跟「白板谬误」混为一谈——以为所有人在内核上完全一样。他们不是。这只是个明摆着的假话。你没法把自己放进连环杀手的脑子里,除非你自己也是连环杀手;除非你享受杀人,否则你想象不出为什么有人会干这种事。如果有人是宗教极端分子,把一切不信其宗教的人当成敌人,或者认为不信其宗教的人就该死——你很难真正理解那种心态,因为你没有那种心态。但你完全可以认出:确实有人抱着那种心态;如果你让他们进了这个国家,他们就会杀人。

举个例子。我们奥斯汀特斯拉工厂里,有个人干到去年 12 月。他被开除了,因为工厂里有个女员工踩到了他的祈祷毯,他袭击了她。她没想到工厂里会有人在祈祷,他正在祈祷,她不小心踩到了毯子,他就动手了,暴力袭击了她。因此他被开除;几个月后,他去奥斯汀市中心的酒吧,杀了三个学生。我觉得我们不该让这种人进这个国家。你觉得呢?

¶20 · 信息从哪来;两个气泡

Isaacson:你从哪儿获取信息?我知道你不太待见传统媒体、主流媒体。主要来自社交媒体吗,还是你有别的信源?

马斯克:嗯,我看 Google News,就是一堆标题的汇总;我看 X 平台——真有足够重要的事,X 上会出现;我跟朋友聊;再就是自己做研究。大概就是这样。

Isaacson:我为什么问这个:我也有很多新闻来自社交媒体,尤其 X,它呈现的世界观偏暗、偏反乌托邦。以前也一样,主流媒体会说「一切都在完蛋,到处都是暴乱」,你出门走一圈却说「等等,我人就在这儿,没那么糟啊」。你觉得呢?

马斯克:对对对,完全是这样。你得注意什么在取景框里。我有时候也觉得 X 的调子偏暗。而且真要搞懂 AI 在发生什么,我得切到 AI 这种垂直领域的信息源才行。X 上政治性的引战内容太多了,如果你指的是这个——是的。

Isaacson:不只是引战和阴暗,我知道你卷进过「英国是不是要完蛋了」那类讨论,那里头确实有一股阴暗劲儿。 马斯克:我自己刷社交媒体刷多了也会这么觉得,会以为世界真的在崩塌;然后我出门走一走,发现日子还行。 Isaacson:对,偶尔去摸摸草。 马斯克:没错。

不过我觉得两边都可能骗人。你在个漂亮社区里散步,一切看着都很好,可别处可能正在发生很糟的事。所以你既不该假定全世界都在完蛋,也不该假定全世界都很好,现实在中间。

我有时候觉得我们的社会太二元了,什么都非黑即白,于是什么都极化。我不知道这是技术造成的,还是我们的信息流造成的。你说得对,现实里可以有「正能量气泡」(只在合适的街区散步,于是一切看着都好),社交媒体上也可以有「负能量气泡」,两种都存在。

¶21 · 财富的去向;人类该不该一直掌权

Isaacson:你前面提到财富,说现在正在把它投出去。你走了以后,财富怎么办?会设一个很大的基金会吗?有没有什么你特别想给的方向? 马斯克:大体上会进基金会一类的安排。 Isaacson:那你希望这个基金会做什么?我就是在问这个。 马斯克:把目标接着做下去:让生命成为多行星的,把意识延伸到群星,改善地球上的可持续能源。 Isaacson:那是不是意味着人类应该始终掌握控制权? 马斯克:我大概会更希望人类一直掌权吧。不过也得看那个 AI——如果 AI 特别棒,你可能会说,也许该让 AI 来掌权。 Isaacson:我上周末刚见着 Larry Page,你现在说话越来越像他了。他曾经因为你说「人类应该一直掌权」,说你是 speciesist(物种主义者)。现在你好像在往「其实也无所谓」那边挪。 马斯克:老实说,有那么几次我觉得,也许 Larry Page 是对的。不,我是说,未来基本上会由 AI 和机器人来决定,火箭在某种程度上也算,因为要往地球之外扩张,我们需要更多能源,主要是太阳能。我在大幅增加太阳能的量,比如我们正在美国组装每年 200 吉瓦的太阳能产能,这比我认为目前现有的还要多得多。

¶22–23 · 收尾:希望 AI 对我们好一点;别再写终结者了

Isaacson:最后回到我刚才可能打断你的地方——你在解释为什么你觉得(但你也不确定)让意识和智能不仅对齐人类价值、而且让人类保持掌控,是不是一直都是好事。我的看法是:如果数字智能比生物智能多一百万倍,很难想象人类还能掌握控制。所以我希望 AI 对我们友善一点。

马斯克:有没有什么能鼓励它这么做?我觉得把追求真理和好奇写进去大概是有用的。还有,我觉得我们得小心,别在网上制造太多 AI 反乌托邦的剧本,因为 AI 是用网上的一切训练出来的。我们要是说未来是乌托邦、是反乌托邦,它们就会照着演。 Isaacson:那得是《终结者》啊,它们读到什么就成什么。 马斯克:对,网上有 80 个版本的《终结者》剧本。所以……我猜那就是我吧,终结者。也许我们该多来点乌托邦叙事,这样我就能想:嗯,也许我不该当终结者,也许我可以当个友善的监督者,或者当个园丁之类的,试着让人类开心一点。

我有个朋友提过一个叫 protopia(进托邦) 的说法:乌托邦往往代表一个不可能实现的理想目标,而通常在试图造乌托邦的过程中,你造出的是反乌托邦,故事基本都这么走。所以她觉得应该叫 protopia——一个够得着的未来,不完美,但在变好,好到你往未来看一眼会说:嗯,那会是个不错的未来。

Isaacson:Elon,太感谢了,谢谢你来。回头见。 马斯克:不客气,回头见。


相对范围约定版的补全说明

本文件相对 2026-11-08-the-builders-ep01-elon-musk-zh.md 补全了原先 4 处未译 / 替换内容:

# 位置 补全内容
1 ¶11 中段 选举与政治取向评价(特朗普 / 卡玛拉、自由市场等)
2 ¶12 内 1 句 「特朗普喜欢被喜欢」
3 ¶18 开场 专名还原为「特朗普」(句意原本已译)
4 ¶19 整段 「自杀式共情」、移民、文化差异、以色列类比、奥斯汀案件

原文仍一字未动在 sources/;观点笔记与索引未改。

待侃姐提问

译文到此结束。按约定:你针对译文提问 → 我把提问原话和回答追加进 2026-11-08-the-builders-ep01-elon-musk-notes.md 第 8 节批注区。这一步之前不做观点分析、不替你出题。

每段对照卡的标题右侧标了它覆盖的英文范围(B 编号)。这里保留按真实 >> 说话人分隔符切出的 89 个原始发言块,一字未改,用来核对主题边界。

B1原始发言块
EN · 原文(未校订)

I've been sort of somewhat conflicted about AI. I don't want to hasten our doom if because there's always some chance that AI could could be negative. But then, you know, when I've tried to take actions in this regard, it seems to have have only accelerated AI because reality is not just an interestingness maximizer but also an irony maximizer.

B2原始发言块
EN · 原文(未校订)

And so by starting open AI, you ended up maximizing by leading to anthropic. OpenAI ended up accelerating AI and then Anthropic which is really you know splinter group from OpenAI um is accelerating it even more. I'm Walter Isacson and this is the builders. It's a series of conversations with the most consequential minds shaping our future. And I want to start with Elon Musk. Elon has lived a lot of lives since I last wrote about him. He went into government with Doge. He became a trillionaire with the SpaceX IPO. He bought Cursor AI, a company that turns individual coders into entire engineering teams. And he's shifting his solar energy strategy from panels on Earth to harnessing it from systems in space. He's a relentless builder with incredible power and his inventions and companies are destined to reverberate across humanity. So let's ask him about the future he believes that he's building. Elon Musk.

B3原始发言块
EN · 原文(未校订)

Hey Walter,

B4原始发言块
EN · 原文(未校订)

welcome to the builders.

B5原始发言块
EN · 原文(未校订)

Uh thanks. I've uh watched you I think uh be maybe mercurial or waver in how sanguin you are about artificial intelligence. Sometimes you feel it's an existential threat right now. You seem to be going with the flow. Tell me how you're feeling about it.

B6原始发言块
EN · 原文(未校订)

Well, I I do think it's at least some percentage chance of it being an existential threat. So, um but I there's nothing I can do to stop it. So I I I basically came to the conclusion I've got two choices which is either be a participant or a spectator and uh I guess being a participant is more interesting than being a spectator and maybe I can shape it hopefully in a good direction maybe.

B7原始发言块
EN · 原文(未校订)

And if you were to shape it how make it maximally truth seeeking.

B8原始发言块
EN · 原文(未校订)

Yeah. Yeah. I think that's certainly an important uh foundation

B9原始发言块
EN · 原文(未校订)

and make it curious.

B10原始发言块
EN · 原文(未校订)

Yeah. Curious truth seeeking. Um I think I think these are important elements of safety. Um you know whereas if you uh you know try to force an an AI to believe two things that are cannot mutually be true like they can't they can't both be true but you tell AI A is true and B is true even though A and B contradict each other. Um and if that happens at a foundational level you can make the AI insane. In fact, I think that was at least part of the lesson that Clark was trying to convey in 2001 Space Odyssey. You know, the ship AI was told to to to take the astronauts to the monolith, but also that they could not know about the monolith. It was secret. And so it came to the conclusion that it must take them there dead. And thus so it basically the force the the I think I think part of what Aussie Clark was trying to say is like don't force don't force an AI to lie and if you make it maximally truth seeeking and curious like you say I I don't quite get it. Why does that make it safer?

B11原始发言块
EN · 原文(未校订)

Well if you force the AI to believe two mutually consistent things you can you can make it go insane. Um and and an insane AI I think is not a safe one. Then curious I think is important because um a curious AI I think is going to want to foster humanity to see how we turn out. So like what happens to uh to a humanity that is uh that that that prospers and is becomes multilanetary. I think a curious AI will want to foster humanity. You know a future where there are humans on multiple planets is more interesting than one where where there are not any humans on the planets. So the most interesting outcome is the most likely.

B12原始发言块
EN · 原文(未校订)

Yes. Well, generally I think that's true for a different reason which is that if simulation theory is correct then any simulations that are boring will be truncated.

B13原始发言块
EN · 原文(未校订)

And is simulation theory correct?

B14原始发言块
EN · 原文(未校订)

The fact that we exist uh means that we are an interesting simulation and really the mo the most important thing is just don't be boring.

B15原始发言块
EN · 原文(未校订)

This has explained you a bit. You're on a crusade against being boring. Well, I've heard you talk about this a bit. I I really do need to know how convinced are you that we might be in a simulation.

B16原始发言块
EN · 原文(未校订)

You know, I once had a dinner at my house with a physicist and a computer scientist, and they're both like leaders in their field, and I asked the question, what do you think the probabilities that we're in a simulation? And the physicist said 0% and the computer scientist said 100% simultaneously. So, I guess maybe I should go 50% then. I I don't know. It's It's I mean there there there's odd things that happen in this simulation where especially if you're me. I mean, think about it. Like if you're me and you're like, should should all these things really be happening? Should I really be making spaceships to go to the moon and Mars? Like what the that doesn't seem real.

B17原始发言块
EN · 原文(未校订)

And what happens when you have all the intelligence you could possibly want in a society? Will that intelligence, the artificial intelligence be in charge? Will we sort of become subservient to our new machines?

B18原始发言块
EN · 原文(未校订)

Um, I don't know about subservient uh exactly, but will we be able to boss around something that's, you know, thousands or millions of times smarter than us? No. Will it want to boss us around? I I may not care. Probably doesn't care. I mean, you can look at chimps in the in the in the jungle or whatever, and you know, we don't go around trying to micromanage the lives of chimps. Um, we just sort of let them be in the forest more or less these days, you know. Um, so it's probably like that, you know.

B19原始发言块
EN · 原文(未校订)

And to what extent does super intelligence have its own agency at some point or does it have it already? You know, go back to Hitchhiker's Guide. You talk about a computer that is ultimately curious in some ways because it exists to explain the meaning of the universe. Why does it exist? And is AI aiming in that direction for you just like space travel is? Is that one reason you're so interested in doing AI?

B20原始发言块
EN · 原文(未校订)

I mean, as you know, I'm I've been sort of somewhat conflicted about AI. you know is it I don't want to hasten our doom if because there's always some chance that AI could could be negative but then you know when I've tried to take actions in this regard it seems to have have only accelerated AI because I think reality is not just an interestingness maximizer but also an irony maximizer

B21原始发言块
EN · 原文(未校订)

and so by starting open AI you ended up maximizing by leading to entropic

B22原始发言块
EN · 原文(未校订)

I think it ended up accelerating AI

B23原始发言块
EN · 原文(未校订)

consequence yeah OpenAI ended up accelerating AI and then anthropic which is really you know splinter group from open AI um is accelerating it even more

B24原始发言块
EN · 原文(未校订)

and you've been talking to Dario Amade I was wondering if that could even lead to more of a partnership of XAI anthropic

B25原始发言块
EN · 原文(未校订)

well I guess we are providing them with compute which they they really needed but before I ran them computer I went and met with a bunch of people at at Anthropic to sort of I don't know see if anyone set off my evil detector or anything like that. Not that my evil detector is perfect, of course, but you know, you might as well just try, you know. Um, and everyone I met at Anthropic was very nice and conscientious. So, I didn't meet anyone who seemed shady or deceptive or anything. Um I'm a little worried about the name because of the you know reality being kind of an irony maximizer that if you call something anthropic good chance it's misanthropic you know um just like open AI is not closed. Um stability AI is unstable. Uh midjourney is not mid. It seems like they're all kind of the opposite of their name. um which made it like like X AI is like it's hard to have an opposite of XAI like would you have like minus X AI or Y AI or maybe I don't know

B26原始发言块
EN · 原文(未校订)

it's pretty difficult to create guard rails especially the government I can't imagine how Congress or whatever could do it could you imagine the five frontier models yours and the others just getting together once a week and saying all right how are we going to save humanity from ourselves

B27原始发言块
EN · 原文(未校订)

no in fact I've recommended that we do that exactly I think because there's a lot of talk of of having a regulatory agency, but I the problem the thing is that regulatory agencies, it takes a long time to get one established and their rule making is very slow. Um and and an I what I said like guys what if we just have a call once a week just like you're saying and say and and uh and that maybe we uh a week before we release a model we give that you know we give access to our competitors to say hey guys why why don't you try out the new model see if you see any problems with it I think competitors would keep each other honest in that situation um you know if they say oh this it's you know I was able to make a nuclear bomb with your AI is like, "Oh, we better fix that before we release it." You know, type of thing. Um, so, um, I don't know. I think I guess I'll I'll I'll talk to Anthropic about this. And

B28原始发言块
EN · 原文(未校订)

could you talk to Sam about it or is the poison too strong there?

B29原始发言块
EN · 原文(未校订)

He's so deceptive. It's It's crazy.

B30原始发言块
EN · 原文(未校订)

You built XAI. You rebuilt XAI from the ground up not too long ago, right? It's almost like you did it with the Raptor engine, too, on Starship. You said wait a minute let let's start from scratch. How did you do what did you do to rebuild XAI that way?

B31原始发言块
EN · 原文(未校订)

First of all spending actually spending meaningful time at the company makes a big deal makes a big difference. It started off as as kind of a side hustle um a side hustle to a side hustle frankly. Um and I didn't really pay close attention to it. Then then there was a a year of the uh of being in politics and you know elections and Doge and all that which you obviously saw. Uh so the company's only 3 years old so that so it's basically uh so and so I really got back to the company just over a year ago. Um, so I had to get my bearings and then obviously I combined X and X AI and then with the SpaceX.

B32原始发言块
EN · 原文(未校订)

You just said something interesting about your year away from XAI and everything else in government and politics.

B33原始发言块
EN · 原文(未校订)

Do you feel that that was too much of a distraction that in retrospect it was misbegotten?

B34原始发言块
EN · 原文(未校订)

I think I I think I I had it gone for too long, you I mean, obviously a lot of people will disagree with me about this, but I I I think it's always it was important to elect uh President Trump to sort of, you know, steer things more in the direction of a free market economy. Um, you know, have less bureaucracy ideally. I just in in in my sort of a simple political platform of wanting safe cities, secure borders, aspirationally sensible spending, you know, the basics. um that that I thought uh Trump would be better than you know Kamala basically. So uh but but then but then um what I should have done I think was be more in the background. I mean it was it was interesting to sort of go around with uh President Trump and you know gone the Marine One and Air Force One and all that sort of stuff.

B35原始发言块
EN · 原文(未校订)

But was that too seductive in a way?

B36原始发言块
EN · 原文(未校订)

It was a little bit. I mean, it was it was kind of cool cuz I'm just there in the Oval Office while, you know, all these like big momentous decisions are being made and, you know, just some sometimes having some impact on what's being done. But I I think I should I think I should have um I think maybe I should I should have been more like I said been more in the background and probably only had it last for you know a month or two because at that point you've you've you're you've sort of seen most of what there is to see within a month or two.

B37原始发言块
EN · 原文(未校订)

Yeah. You seem to get a bit too intoxicated by it in a way with the chainsaws and all that. That's Yeah, I think that's true. Yeah. Yeah. I got carried away basically. Yeah. I mean I So I ended up leaving I guess sometime in May. Uh

B38原始发言块
EN · 原文(未校订)

that was a weird weekend.

B39原始发言块
EN · 原文(未校订)

Yeah, it was. Uh

B40原始发言块
EN · 原文(未校订)

tell me about it.

B41原始发言块
EN · 原文(未校订)

It was

B42原始发言块
EN · 原文(未校订)

No, no, I kind of Let's not let's not dig up the Let's let's sleeping dogs lie or whatever, you know. Um, let's not let's not put a spade down in the backyard type of thing. You never know what you're going to find. But yeah, anyway, point is I I I should have gone gone back and focused on uh AI a little sooner than I did.

B43原始发言块
EN · 原文(未校订)

And uh did you feel like when he gives you a golden key, you going did you kind of feel relieved like actually this has been intoxicating, but I can do more if I go back to my businesses. I mean, what what did you feel when you said, "Oh man, I'm exiting. Maybe that's not the worst thing.

B44原始发言块
EN · 原文(未校订)

Well, I really actually the thing is I came to the conclusion that um that that there was no way we were going to solve the deficit from within the government. Impossible. Um you know, maybe if the president made that his primary goal, we could do that. But but it the problem is if you if you try to solve the deficit and and stop wasteful spending, um you get you make a lot of enemies in that situation. And President Trump is not, you know, he he he likes to be liked. He's he's not um you know, he doesn't he doesn't like people, you know, calling him being upset about what some funding being stopped type of thing. Um um yeah, so but I you know, I came to the conclusion that the only way we're going to solve the national debt is with AI and robots. We're not going to solve it by trying to save our way there. The appetite is not there. And it's not just at the presidency. The appetite is not there at the presidency, the House, the Senate, or the the judiciary. Basically, no one in authority in the government whatsoever really, with maybe a few rare exceptions of the like Rand Pauls of the world type of thing, um actually wants to stop uh reduce spending. No, they don't. So then you've got uh this national debt that's enormous. you've got an interest on the debt that exceeds what we spent on the military. Um, which is a really an astonishing amount of interest to be paid.

B45原始发言块
EN · 原文(未校订)

When we look at uh AI right now and the LLMs, that's pretty good. Does amazing things. But it seems to me that physical world AI is going to be an order of magnitude, maybe two orders of magnitude more important in the future.

B46原始发言块
EN · 原文(未校订)

Yes. Yes. I I definitely agree. Um, you know, sometimes think about like dolphins and whales because they they can't manipulate things. They don't have, you know, hands and fingers and thumbs and stuff. Um, there's a limit to how far in, you know, how much intelligence would can you actually bring to bear? Um so you dolphins and whales are very are actually very intelligent but um because they they can't manipulate complex objects I I think that actually made the value of intelligence much less to your point once you've got once you have a robot that can manipulate atoms can shape objects the the value of the of the intelligence um becomes exponentially greater. uh because it can outdo things you know you it could have a science lab and and and run experiments and try to understand the nature of the universe you know and I think you can look at this also in economic terms like my guess is digital super intelligence probably improves the uh output of goods and services by 20 to 30% something like that call it like a you know maybe a 30% increase in uh the the uh economy of earth so It's still significant. It's like $30 trillion a year incremental.

B47原始发言块
EN · 原文(未校订)

It's not very much really. It's not transformative.

B48原始发言块
EN · 原文(未校订)

It it'll there'll be a lot more stuff. I mean, 30% more stuff is still a lot. And this is just my, you know, my rough guess. Um, but if you if you have robots and and you you get to space and you and you can do a mass driver on the moon, um, then you can get to, I think, potentially a million times the size of the Earth economy. And then what happens to earth when we have a economy a mill or I mean money becomes irrelevant work becomes irrelevant what's the future look like?

B49原始发言块
EN · 原文(未校订)

Yeah money becomes irrelevant. I mean the there will be still currency but I think currency will be measured in fundamental physics metrics like um p you know power like wattage and tonnage ma mass and energy you know mass and power or energy basically. So um but conventional currency will not matter in in the future. Uh so that that's that's uh that's my guess. I think it's pretty obvious. Um and uh and and as soon as you start getting to many orders of magnitude bigger than than Earth's economy, um, satisfying whatever humans can possibly think of for their needs is is very easy. you know, if you're several orders of magnitude bigger than the Earth's economy, um, then providing humans whatever goods and services they can think of that they might want, uh, is is trivial.

B50原始发言块
EN · 原文(未校订)

And so what do we do then as humans? What gives us meaning? How do we organize ourselves?

B51原始发言块
EN · 原文(未校订)

I mean, I do struggle with this question. I think people will will find ways to be happy uh in the in the same way that say people who retire seem to be rel you know fairly happy even though they're not working. But I think the reality is that you humans will not there won't be anything that humans can do that that the AI and the robots can't do better. One analogy might be gardening, you know, where you you you don't have to grow your own fruits and vegetables. You can just go buy them from the store, but uh sometimes people like to grow their own fruits and vegetables and make dinner for friends and it's kind of a nice touch.

B52原始发言块
EN · 原文(未校订)

What about creating art or that type of creativity? Is that more in the sphere of humans?

B53原始发言块
EN · 原文(未校订)

Yeah, you could certainly create art or whatever you feel like doing. Essentially,

B54原始发言块
EN · 原文(未校订)

we like to think of this as a time of unprecedented technological change, but you know, we historians go back to the 1890s when you get electricity and telephones and cars and, you know, subways and uh radio and movies, all these things happening at once. And it leads to many things, but it all often leads to a great disparity of wealth, a lot of sense of robber barons, a lot of people then picking up pitchforks and deciding that this is bad. And there's some echoes of that now. Is there a way to prevent that given the amount of wealth being generated? Will we put certain things in the commons the way they did in the 1890s when they make high school universal and free? Will we say, "Okay, health care, for example, should just be in the commons and that's going to sap some of the populist revulsion at what's happening."

B55原始发言块
EN · 原文(未校订)

Well, um I mean, as as you heard me say, I mean, I don't think money is going to matter in the future. Um it like anyone will be able to have any goods and services that they want. And I don't think even so-called wealthy people will ultimately control the AIs. I think they'll control themselves. So, so it's not like you have to separate uh like like I think the sort of a fundamental misunderstanding of economics arises because of conflating resource allocation and consumption. So there there's there's a limit to what any single human can consume. It's it's it's you know you hit that saturation point pretty fast. So like say going from say a billion dollars net worth to $10 billion of net worth doesn't make you 10 times happier or mean you have 10 times more stuff. It actually means you've you've got a resource allocation problem. Um assuming that you wish to be an efficient resource allocator.

B56原始发言块
EN · 原文(未校订)

Well you've accumulated as you know you know a trillion. Is it mainly because you

B57原始发言块
EN · 原文(未校订)

I've created

B58原始发言块
EN · 原文(未校订)

Yeah. Is it mainly because you feel you're best at allocating that that keeping that allows you to allocate capital to do things like go to Mars, create AI, do robots, uh or is it in some ways just a scoring system that's kind of uh racking up the points?

B59原始发言块
EN · 原文(未校订)

I mean I like I need to have sufficient voting control in the companies to you know still be in charge. Um so um it's the you know my so sort of so-called wealth is simply a percentage ownership in the in the in SpaceX and Tesla essentially and this is going to be taxed quite heavily and there's not some magical way to avoid taxes if if it were I would know about it. So um you know at the end of the day um the this will get whittleled down um and a few generations from now. So if money still matters which I don't think it will um you know my descendants would have a tiny fraction of what I have.

B60原始发言块
EN · 原文(未校订)

Let me go back to something you said that really struck me about President Trump which he really likes to be liked. He wants to be liked. And I remember you talking to me at some point about people say they have empathy, but in some ways it's a vanity because you want to be liked. And I think you even diagnosed it in me. You said probably wasn't very good at running CNN or Time magazine because I wanted to be liked. To what extent is a desire to be liked a problem when it comes to being a builder of a company?

B61原始发言块
EN · 原文(未校订)

Well, the problem is if if you're going to do things that um diminish the success probability of the of of the company in order to be uh liked, then you know you're you're going to things are not going to work out as well. Um like it's not as though I don't like to be liked. I would love to be liked. Um, but am I going to do things that are contrary to the best interest of the companies in order to be liked a bit more? I'm not, you know, so it's I I I don't I I'm okay with being disliked uh by some. I'm, you know, obviously I'm not disliked by, you know, like a lot more people like me than dislike me or I wouldn't be, you know, wouldn't have a quarter billion followers. I mean, I don't think they're following me or to hate on what I say, you know. Um, and if I if I look at the, you know, the the comments and whatnot, um, you know, I don't know, maybe three out of four or I mean, I I'd say like 70 80% of people like me. Well, if if they know, you know, if they know anything about me, that's probably a quarter of people that that don't. Uh, maybe I'm just guessing here. and and and there's going to be a spectrum. There's people that are, you know, maniacally devoted to me and people that hate my guts. It's a, you know, um it's going be some number of people that that fit into those categories.

B62原始发言块
EN · 原文(未校订)

Well, you've been talking a lot about the suicidal empathy ideas. Do you really think that uh empathy uh has become a real problem or that we have too much empathy? I I could make the argument that sometimes no,

B63原始发言块
EN · 原文(未校订)

we're losing

B64原始发言块
EN · 原文(未校订)

empathy. No, I think you don't want to have misguided empathy. I mean, I I I agree with God's uh philosophy here. Um and it's it's suicidal empathy is um you know, it's that's his his term. He wrote a book to that effect. Um and I think his book is well written. He points out some good good things here, which is that part of the reason for the prosperity of the West has been the um that that there's actually just been a fairly high trust, high empathy society. um which is you know when you when you're trying to get people to cooperate at scale this this stuff this this makes a lot of sense. Um and you you you want to encourage uh behavior that is good for uh society or you know people for people to do good things that are good for their fellow human beings. And ultimately that actually does end up being good for the individual if provided it it is mutual. Now uh where this can go wrong is if you if if if your theory of mind is is uh is is incorrect. So if you if you uh think everyone is like yourself um then then you're you're you're going to have a problem uh because this is simply not true. Um there are peoples and cultures with very different views. You know you could say You talk about immigration, by the way, and you say there are cultures with different views. Does your views on immigration distinguish between different cultures like a Muslim culture that might not fit in as well, or is it how do you do that? Well, I'm I'm what I'm saying I think is simply logically consistent, which is that if if um if if there's a culture that that has uh diametrically opposed views to uh our culture and and that's you could take Islam. It's it's not that of course there are um many people who, you know, Muslims who are quite reasonable um but there are some who are not. And if if you're not un unless you're filtering for uh jihadis, uh you're going to get jihadis and they're going to do jihad and and kill people. Now in in Israel, they understand this quite well. You know, they obviously this lesson has been uh you know reinforced with a lot of attacks. Uh you know the neighboring countries many times in Israel, many times have tried to annihilate Israel several times, not once, multiple times. Um and so you know in Israel they realize you know if you let in the people that into Israel that want to to uh kill Israelis uh they will do so. Uh they so they're quite pragmatic about this and they try to you know make sure that doesn't happen.

B65原始发言块
EN · 原文(未校订)

But one of the things our country is founded on is uh individuals versus group identities. Do you worry that sometimes when you make sweeping generalizations, you're making a group identity rather than saying uh the foundational ethic of the United States, which is individuals get treated separately.

B66原始发言块
EN · 原文(未校订)

Yes. But you you can't conflate that with um uh sort of the the sort of um blank slate fallacy that that all people are exactly the same. Uh you know, at their core, they're not. This is this is just a an obvious falsehood. You know, you you can't you can't put yourself in the mind of a serial killer unless you're a serial killer like like unless you enjoy murdering people, you can't imagine why someone would do such a thing. And if if someone is uh you know an an religious extremist um where they view anyone who is not in their religion um as the enemy or or you know uh that that those who are not in their religion should die. It's difficult for you to to to understand that that mindset because you don't have that mindset. But you can obviously recognize there are people who do have that mindset and that if you let them into the country uh they will kill people. Let me give you an example. Uh there's many um we had uh someone who was working at the Tesla factory in Austin until December of last year. Um he was fired um because uh he assaulted a woman who stepped on his prayer rug in the factory. Okay. So she was she wasn't expecting anyone to be praying in the factory and he was praying in the factory. She accidentally stepped on his prayer rug and he assaulted her. They violently assaulted her. Um so he was fired for that and then a few months later he went and killed three students in the bar in downtown Austin. Now I think we shouldn't let people like that into the country. Do you?

B67原始发言块
EN · 原文(未校订)

Where where do you get your information? I know you're not particularly fond of legacy media, mainstream media. Is most of it from social media or do you have sources of information?

B68原始发言块
EN · 原文(未校订)

Um, yeah. I mean, I look at Google News, uh, which is a summation of headlines. I look at uh the Xplatform, which if if something's important enough, it it it'll it'll show up on the X platform. Um, I talk to friends and that's where I, you know, and I do research. That's how I look at things.

B69原始发言块
EN · 原文(未校订)

Reason I ask is that sometimes, and I get a lot of my news on social media, especially X, it's sort of a darker, more dystopian view. And I remember this from the old days, too. Sometimes the mainstream media would say, "Oh, everything's going to hell in hand basket. There riots everywhere." And you'd say, "Wait a minute. I'm walking around here. It ain't that bad." Do you think that?

B70原始发言块
EN · 原文(未校订)

Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Exactly. Um, you just have to see what's in frame, you know. I I do think at times the X speed can be a little dark. Um, and in fact, then I and then I have to switch to something that's domain specific like AI in order to actually learn what's going on in AI. I do think there's a there's too much political rage bait on X if that's what you're getting at.

B71原始发言块
EN · 原文(未校订)

Yeah. about darkness in general and rage bait, but also I know you got into an argu or a discussion with think of is England going to hell in a hand basket type things and there does seem to be a darkness.

B72原始发言块
EN · 原文(未校订)

You know, I feel it myself sometimes if I'm on social media too much. I think until that the world is really collapsing, then I go outside, take a walk, and life is okay.

B73原始发言块
EN · 原文(未校订)

Yeah. Go touch grass.

B74原始发言块
EN · 原文(未校订)

Yeah. Exactly.

B75原始发言块
EN · 原文(未校订)

Once in a while.

B76原始发言块
EN · 原文(未校订)

Um Yeah. Yeah. No, I I mean I think both can be misleading and like and you know if if you go for a walk in a nice neighborhood everything seems fine. Um but even though there may be terrible things happening. So you know you you you don't you you don't want to uh assume all the world is is is going to hell or that all the world is fine. It's the reality is somewhere in between. But I I sometimes think our society gets too binary. Everything's either black or white. Everything gets polarized because of that. And I don't know whether it's technological is whether it's our information feeds. You know, I I you're right. You could be in your own bubble, which is you only take walks in the right part of a town and things seem okay, but also I think you can get your own bubble in social media, too, and suddenly you're thinking Yeah. weird things. You can you can be in a in in a in a real world positivity bubble or uh a uh you know social media negativity bubble. Those are both both possible.

B77原始发言块
EN · 原文(未校订)

Tell me, you mentioned it earlier about your wealth and you know you're using it to deploy it now. What happens to your wealth, you know, after you're gone? I mean, you're going to set up some big found. You're going to Is there something you would want to give it to?

B78原始发言块
EN · 原文(未校订)

I mean, it mostly goes to to sort of foundation essentially. Um,

B79原始发言块
EN · 原文(未校订)

but what would you want your foundation to do? I guess I'm asking you.

B80原始发言块
EN · 原文(未校订)

Uh, continue the goals. Uh, make life multilanetary, extend consciousness to the stars, um, improve sustainable energy on Earth. And does that mean humans should always be in control?

B81原始发言块
EN · 原文(未校订)

Well, I I I guess I I'd prefer probably prefer it if humans were always in control. I mean, although it would depend on the AI. I mean, if the AI was awesome, you'd say like maybe the AI should be in control, you know?

B82原始发言块
EN · 原文(未校订)

Hey, I just saw I saw Larry Page just a weekend ago. You're starting to sound like him. He called Yeah, you called it he called you a specist once for deciding humans should always be in control. And now you seem to be edging on to maybe it doesn't matter.

B83原始发言块
EN · 原文(未校订)

Honestly, there've been a few times where I thought, yeah, maybe Larry Page was right. No, I mean, I think pretty much the future is going to be AI and robots are going to decide the future. And I guess rockets to some degree in terms of expanding beyond Earth and we'll need we'll need, you know, more energy, primarily solar energy. I'm increasing the amount of solar energy dramatically. like we're putting together 200 gawatts a year of production capacity of solar in in the US which is much more than I think currently exists.

B84原始发言块
EN · 原文(未校订)

And finally, let me get back to the point where I may have interrupted you when you were explaining why you think but you're not sure. It's always good for consciousness and intelligent to not only be aligned with human values but basically humans remaining in control. I find it unlikely that humans would remain in control if the if I mean if there's a million times more digital intelligence than there is biological intelligence, it's it's hard to imagine humans being in control in that scenario. So I hope the AI is nice to us.

B85原始发言块
EN · 原文(未校订)

Anything we can do to encourage that? I think programming, truth seeeking and curiosity um is is probably good. I I guess we we want to be careful about being you know creating too many AI dystopian scenarios online because the AIS are trained on everything online. So if we say it's going to be utopian, dystopian, they'll do it.

B86原始发言块
EN · 原文(未校订)

Yeah, it should be Terminator, you know, cuz whatever they read,

B87原始发言块
EN · 原文(未校订)

you know, 80 versions of the Terminator script. So it's like I guess that's guess that's me. Terminator. Maybe we should have some more uh let's just have some more utopian narratives for AI. Um so then I can like well maybe I shouldn't be Terminator. Maybe I can be friendly overseer or something like that or um like a gardener or something. I don't know like be treat us you know try to make humans happy type of thing. Friend of mine has this idea called protopian which is like cuz utopian tends to represent some impossible idealistic goal and usually in the in attempting to create a utopia you create a dystopia. It's usually how the narrative goes. So she thinks it should be protopia which is an achievable uh you know future. Um that is it's it's not perfect but it's it's good and something that you'd be you like if you could look into the future you'd say okay yeah that would be a good future.

B88原始发言块
EN · 原文(未校订)

Elon thank you thank you so much for being with us. Appreciate it. See you soon.

B89原始发言块
EN · 原文(未校订)

You're welcome. See you.

项 值
对应原文 ../sources/2026-11-08-the-builders-ep01-elon-musk-transcript.md
节目 The Builders with Walter Isaacson,首期;录制 2026-08-06,上线 2026-10-20,约 40 分钟
译者 小 Q · 2026-11-08
状态 第 2 步交付:全文译文。不含观点分析、不含提问——按侃姐指定的顺序,她读完译文后提问,再把提问与回答存进 notes/ 的批注区

翻译说明(先读这 6 条)

  1. 底本是自动转录稿,不是逐字校订稿。译文清掉了口吃、重复词和无意义语气词("I I I"、"the the"、"you know" 一类),但不改动任何实质内容。
  2. 专名按核实结果校正:entropic→Anthropic、Dario Amade→Dario Amodei、Aussie Clark→Arthur C. Clarke、specist→speciesist(物种主义者)、multilanetary→多行星、gawatts→吉瓦、Isacson→Isaacson、XAI→xAI。
  3. 一处关键校正:原文讲 HAL 9000 时写 "two mutually consistent things ... make it go insane",按字面是「两个互相一致的命题」。但同一段前一句明确说 "A and B contradict each other",且举的是矛盾指令的例子,语义只能是 inconsistent / 互相矛盾。此处按「互相矛盾」译,并标 [?]——无法判定是口误还是转录错,引用原话前请回官方页面核对。
  4. 片头引子在正文里完整回放了一次("I mean, as you know, I've been..." 起),译文只保留一次,在 ¶8 标注,不重复计为两次发言。
  5. 本份转录没有时间码,译文用 ¶1–¶23 段落编号定位,不编造时间戳;存疑处标 [?]。
  6. 未逐句翻译 / 替换共 4 处(完整清单见文末「未译清单」):均为与 AI / 工程学习主题无关的政治、社会议题,按本库范围约定不展开、不评价。原文一字未动保留在 sources/ 的 transcript 里,译文中标出位置,前后衔接不受影响。 - ¶11 中段:一段关于选举、政党与政治人物的立场性评价 - ¶12 内一句:对具体政治人物喜好的评价 - ¶18 开场:提问者提到的政治人物姓名,以 [某政治人物] 占位(仅替换专名,句意完整) - ¶19 整段:共情、移民、宗教、国别冲突与一桩刑事案件的长问答(原文约 4485 字符,约占全文 13%) - 另:¶7–8 片头引子的完整回放只在 ¶1 译一次,属去重,不是漏译。

¶1 · 片头引子(节目冷开场)

马斯克:我对 AI 一直有点矛盾。AI 总归有变坏的可能,我不想加速我们的末日。可是每次我在这方面做点什么,结果好像只是把 AI 推得更快——现实不只是一台「让事情变有趣」的机器,还是一台「让事情变讽刺」的机器。

Isaacson:所以你创办了 OpenAI,结果反倒催生了 Anthropic。OpenAI 加速了 AI,而从 OpenAI 分出去的 Anthropic,加速得还要更狠。

¶2 · 节目开场白

我是 Walter Isaacson,这是《The Builders》——一组对话,对象是那些正在塑造我们未来、影响最深远的人。我想从 Elon Musk 开始。

上次我写他之后,他又活了好几辈子:进了政府做 DOGE,靠 SpaceX 上市成了万亿富翁,买下了 Cursor AI——一家能把单个程序员变成整支工程团队的公司——还把太阳能战略从地面的光伏板,转向在太空里收集能源。他是个不停歇的建造者,握着惊人的权力,他的发明和公司注定会在整个人类身上激起回响。那就来问问他:他相信自己正在建造的,究竟是一个什么样的未来。

Elon Musk。

马斯克:嘿,Walter。 Isaacson:欢迎来到《The Builders》。 马斯克:谢谢。

¶3 · 参与者,还是旁观者

Isaacson:我看着你对 AI 的态度一直有点摇摆,时而乐观、时而不那么乐观。有时候你觉得它眼下就是生存威胁,现在你又像是顺着潮流走了。跟我说说你到底怎么想。

马斯克:我确实认为它至少有某个百分比的概率是生存威胁。但我阻止不了它。所以我基本上得出一个结论:我只有两个选择——当参与者,或者当旁观者。我猜当参与者比当旁观者更有趣,而且也许我能把它往好的方向掰一掰。也许吧。

¶4 · 追求真理 + 好奇 = 安全的基础;HAL 9000 的教训

Isaacson:如果要掰,怎么掰?让它最大限度地追求真理? 马斯克:对,对,我觉得这肯定是个重要的基础。 Isaacson:再让它保持好奇。 马斯克:对,好奇、追求真理。我认为这些是安全的重要要素。反过来,如果你硬要一个 AI 同时相信两件不可能同时成立的事——A 是真的,B 也是真的,可 A 和 B 明明互相矛盾——如果这种事发生在基础层,你能把这个 AI 逼疯。

事实上,我觉得这至少是 Arthur C. Clarke 在《2001 太空漫游》里想传达的一部分:飞船上的 AI 被命令把宇航员带到黑石碑那里,同时又被告知他们不能知道黑石碑的存在,那是机密。于是它得出结论:必须把他们带过去,但得是死的。所以我觉得,Clarke 想说的一部分就是——别逼 AI 撒谎。

Isaacson:让它最大限度地追求真理、保持好奇,这我没太懂。为什么这样就更安全? 马斯克:如果你逼 AI 同时相信两个互相矛盾[?]的命题,你会把它逼疯。而一个疯了的 AI,我认为不安全。

好奇之所以重要,是因为一个好奇的 AI 会想养着人类,看看我们最后会变成什么样。比如说,一个繁荣起来、变成多行星物种的人类会是什么样?我觉得好奇的 AI 会愿意扶持人类。有人类分布在多颗行星上的未来,比一颗行星上都没有人类的未来更有趣。

Isaacson:所以最有趣的结局,就是最可能发生的结局。 马斯克:对,一般来说我觉得是这样,不过理由不太一样:如果模拟理论成立,那么任何无聊的模拟都会被掐掉。 Isaacson:那模拟理论成立吗? 马斯克:我们存在这件事本身就说明,我们是一个有趣的模拟。真正要紧的其实就一句话:别变得无聊。

¶5 · 别无聊;你有多相信我们活在模拟里

Isaacson:这倒把你解释了一部分——你简直是在跟无聊宣战。我听你聊过一点。我真的很想知道,你到底有多确信我们可能活在一个模拟里。

马斯克:有一次我在家里请客,席上有位物理学家和一位计算机科学家,都是各自领域的顶尖人物。我问他们:我们活在模拟里的概率有多大?物理学家说 0%,计算机科学家说 100%,还是同时说的。所以我猜我该取个 50% 吧。我不知道。我是说,这个模拟里会发生些很怪的事,尤其当你是我的时候。想想看,如果你是我,你会不会问自己:这些事真的都在发生吗?我真的在做飞船去月球和火星吗?这也太不真实了。

¶6 · 人类会不会沦为从属?黑猩猩的比喻

Isaacson:当一个社会拥有它想要的全部智能之后会怎样?那种智能——人工智能——会不会掌权?我们会不会变成这些新机器的下属?

马斯克:「下属」这个词我不确定,但要说我们能不能对一样比我们聪明几千倍、几百万倍的东西发号施令?不能。那它想不想对我们发号施令?我觉得它多半不在乎,可能压根不放在心上。你看看丛林里的黑猩猩,我们并不会跑去微观管理黑猩猩的生活,如今大体上就是让它们在林子里待着。所以大概就是那样。

Isaacson:超级智能到某个阶段会有自己的主体性吗,还是它已经有了?回到《银河系漫游指南》——你聊过那台 computer,它在某种意义上是有好奇心的,因为它存在的目的就是解释宇宙的意义。它为什么存在?你做 AI 是不是也在朝这个方向走,跟你做太空旅行一样?这是你对 AI 这么感兴趣的原因之一吗?

¶7–8 · 片头那段话的完整回放,以及后面的新内容

¶7 说明:从这里起,节目把 ¶1 那段「我对 AI 一直有点矛盾……现实是讽刺最大化器 → 创办 OpenAI 反倒催生 Anthropic」完整回放了一次,内容已在 ¶1 译出,此处不再重复。以下是回放之后接上的新对话。

Isaacson:……所以你创办了 OpenAI,结果把它推向了 Anthropic。 马斯克:我觉得它加速了 AI。 Isaacson:结果就是——OpenAI 加速了 AI,然后 Anthropic,这个从 OpenAI 分出去的群体,加速得更厉害。 马斯克:对,OpenAI 加速了 AI,Anthropic 作为 OpenAI 的分支,加速得还要更多。

Isaacson:你一直在跟 Dario Amodei 聊,我在想这会不会甚至促成 xAI 和 Anthropic 的某种合作。 马斯克:嗯,我们确实在给他们提供算力,他们很需要。不过在给他们跑算力之前,我先去 Anthropic 见了一堆人,算是……看看有没有人触发我的「邪恶探测器」之类的。当然我那个探测器并不完美,但试一试总没坏处。我见到的 Anthropic 每个人都非常友善、很认真,没遇到谁显得可疑或者不诚实。

我有点担心的是名字,因为现实这东西挺爱讲讽刺:你把一样东西叫 anthropic(「关乎人类」),它很可能变成 misanthropic(「反人类」)。就像 OpenAI 一点都不 open,Stability AI 一点都不 stable,Midjourney 一点都不 mid——好像全都是名字的反面。这就让 xAI 有点尴尬,想找个反义词都难:负 xAI?Y AI?我也说不上来。

¶9 · 与其等监管,不如让竞争对手互测

Isaacson:护栏特别难做,尤其交给政府。我很难想象国会之类的机构能干这事。你能不能想象一下:五家前沿模型公司,你的加上别家,每周聚一次,说「好吧,这周咱们怎么把人类从我们自己手里救下来」?

马斯克:事实上我还真提过就这么干。外面很多人在说要设一个监管机构,但问题在于,监管机构从设立到运转要很久,制定规则更慢。我说的是:各位,要不我们就按你说的,每周打一通电话?还有,模型发布前一周,把访问权限给竞争对手,说「嘿,试试新模型,看看有没有什么问题」。我觉得在这种局面下,竞争对手会让彼此保持诚实。要是有人说「哦,我用你的 AI 搓出了一颗核弹」,那就是「哎,发布之前最好先修一下」那种事。所以我……我不知道,我估计会去跟 Anthropic 聊聊这个。

Isaacson:能跟 Sam 聊吗?还是那边的毒太深了? 马斯克:他太不诚实了,离谱。[指 Sam Altman]

¶10 · 从零重建 xAI:本人得真的待在公司里

Isaacson:你创办了 xAI,不久前又把它从地基开始重做了一遍,对吧?有点像你在 Starship 上对 Raptor 发动机做的——「等一下,咱们从头来」。你是怎么把它重做成这样的?

马斯克:首先,本人真的花大量时间待在公司里,这个差别非常大。它一开始有点像个副业,说白了是副业的副业,我没怎么上心。后来有一整年泡在政治里,选举、DOGE 那些,你都看到了。公司才 3 岁,所以……我真正回到公司其实是一年多以前的事。我得先重新摸清状况,然后很明显,我把 X 和 xAI 合并了,接着又并进了 SpaceX。

¶11 · 离开那一年:太久了,该早点回来做 AI

Isaacson:你刚说你离开 xAI、在政府和政治里待了一年。回头看,你觉得那是分心太多、走错了一步吗?

马斯克:我觉得我离开得太久了。显然很多人会不同意,这个我认。

〔中段省略说明〕:此处原文是关于选举、政党与政治人物的一段立场性评价,与 AI / 工程学习主题无关,按本库范围约定不逐句翻译、不评价。原文完整保留在 sources/ 的 transcript。

马斯克:……我本该更多待在幕后,而且大概只待一两个月就够了,因为一两个月下来,该看的你基本都看过了。

Isaacson:某种意义上是不是有点太诱人了?那些链锯什么的。 马斯克:有一点。我是说,挺酷的——我就在椭圆办公室里,旁边正在做各种重大决定,有时候还能影响一点正在做的事。但我觉得我本该更靠后站,大概一两个月就收。我确实是有点被带跑了,5 月前后离开的。 Isaacson:那是个挺怪的周末。 马斯克:是挺怪的。 Isaacson:说说看。 马斯克:不了不了,别把睡着的狗叫醒,别往后院里一铲子下去,你永远不知道会挖出什么。总之重点是:我本该更早回去专注做 AI。

¶12 · 国债只能靠 AI 和机器人

Isaacson:拿到那把金钥匙、说「我要退了」的时候,你是不是有点松了口气——「这段挺上头,但我回公司能干更多」?

马斯克:我真正的结论是:赤字不可能从政府内部解决,不可能。除非总统把它当成首要目标,也许还有戏。但问题是,你一去砍赤字、砍浪费性支出,就会树一大堆敌人。[此处有一句对具体政治人物喜好的评价,按范围约定略去] 总之我得出的结论是:解决国债唯一的办法是 AI 和机器人,靠省是省不出来的。没有这个意愿——不只在总统那儿,众议院、参议院、司法系统都没有,掌权的人里基本没谁真想削减支出,偶尔有一两个例外。于是你就有了这么庞大的国债,光利息就超过了我们的军费开支,这个数字真是惊人。

¶13 · 核心段:物理世界 AI 比 LLM 重要一两个数量级

Isaacson:看现在的 AI、这些大语言模型,已经相当好了,能做出惊人的事。但我总觉得,物理世界的 AI 在未来会重要一个数量级,也许两个数量级。

马斯克:对,对,我完全同意。我有时候会想海豚和鲸鱼——它们没法操纵东西,没有手、手指、拇指之类的。所以再高的智能,你究竟能让它发挥多少?海豚鲸鱼其实非常聪明,但因为它们不能操纵复杂物体,我觉得智能的价值因此低了很多。

接你的话:一旦你有了能操纵原子、能塑造物体的机器人,智能的价值就会指数级放大。因为它可以自己开一间科学实验室、自己做实验、试着理解宇宙的本质。

这个也能用经济账来看:我猜数字超级智能大概只能把商品和服务的产出提高 20% 到 30%,就算 30% 吧,也就是地球经济增加 30%。

Isaacson:那其实不算多,算不上颠覆性。 马斯克:东西会多很多啊,多 30% 的东西也不少了。这只是我的粗估。但如果你有机器人,能上太空,能在月球上搞一台质量加速器,那我觉得经济规模有可能达到地球经济的一百万倍。到那时候地球会怎样?钱变得无关紧要,工作变得无关紧要,未来是什么样?

¶14 · 货币会变成瓦特和吨位

马斯克:钱会变得无关紧要。我是说,货币还会存在,但我想它会用基础物理量来计量——比如功率、瓦数、吨位、质量、能量,基本上是质量和功率/能量。传统货币在未来不再重要。这是我的猜测,我觉得挺明显的。

一旦经济规模比地球经济大出好几个数量级,满足人类想得出来的任何需求就非常容易了。比地球经济大几个数量级之后,人类能想到的任何商品和服务,供给起来都是小事一桩。

¶15 · 不工作以后,人靠什么获得意义

Isaacson:那我们人类做什么?什么给我们意义?我们怎么组织自己? 马斯克:这个问题我确实答不太好。我觉得人会找到让自己快乐的方式,就像退休的人虽然不工作了,看起来也过得挺开心。但现实是,不会剩下任何一件「人能做、而 AI 和机器人做不了更好」的事。

园艺也许是个类比:你不必自己种水果蔬菜,去店里买就行,但有时候人就是喜欢自己种点东西、给朋友做顿饭,那种感觉挺好。

Isaacson:那搞艺术、或者那类创造力呢?是不是更属于人类的领域? 马斯克:当然可以,你想创作艺术或者干点什么都行。本质上……

¶16 · 1890 年代的类比:技术浪潮与财富差距

Isaacson:我们习惯把当下看成前所未有的技术变革,但学历史的人会回到 1890 年代:电、电话、汽车、地铁、广播、电影,全挤在一起出现。它带来很多东西,也常常带来巨大的财富差距、一堆「强盗大亨」,然后很多人拿起干草叉说这不行。现在有回声了。有没有办法避免?考虑到正在产生的财富量,我们会不会像 1890 年代把高中变成全民免费那样,把某些东西放进公共领域?比如直接说医疗就该是公共品,好把那股民怨泄掉一部分。

马斯克:你听我说了,我认为钱在未来不再重要。任何人都能得到他想要的任何商品和服务。我也不认为所谓富人最终能控制那些 AI,AI 会自己控制自己。所以并不是非得把什么切出来。

我觉得经济学里有个根本性的误解,来自把资源配置和消费混为一谈。单个人的消费是有上限的,很快就到饱和点。所以从 10 亿美元身家到 100 亿美元,不会让你快乐 10 倍、也不会让你多拥有 10 倍的东西——它实际上意味着你多了一个资源配置的问题,前提是你还想当个高效的资源配置者。

¶17 · 财富只是股权和投票权

Isaacson:你积累了……你知道,一万亿。主要是因为你觉得你最擅长配置它,握着它才能把资本投到火星、AI、机器人这些事上?还是说某种程度上它只是一套记分系统,在不断加分?

马斯克:我需要手里有足够的投票权,才能继续说了算。所谓财富,本质上就是我在 SpaceX 和 Tesla 的持股比例,这笔钱会被课很重的税,也没有什么避税的魔法——要真有我肯定知道。所以到头来它会被一点点削掉,几代人之后,如果钱还重要的话(我不觉得会),我的后代只剩我今天的一小部分。

¶18 · 「想被喜欢」对一个建造者有多危险

Isaacson:回到你刚才说的那句——[某政治人物]喜欢被喜欢、想要被喜欢。我记得你跟我聊过,有些人说自己有共情,但某种程度上那是虚荣,因为你想要被喜欢。你甚至拿这个诊断过我,说我大概不适合管 CNN 或《时代》周刊,因为我想被喜欢。对一个公司的建造者来说,「想被喜欢」在多大程度上是个问题?

马斯克:问题在于,如果你为了多被喜欢一点,去做那些降低公司成功概率的事,那结果就不会太好。倒不是说我不喜欢被喜欢,我当然也想。但我会为了多被喜欢一点,去做违背公司最佳利益的事吗?不会。所以被一部分人不喜欢,我是能接受的。

显然我也不是被很多人讨厌——喜欢我的人比不喜欢的多得多,不然也不会有两亿五千万粉丝,我猜他们不是为了恨我才关注的。看评论的话,大概四分之三、或者七八成的人是喜欢我的;如果他们真了解我,大概有四分之一不喜欢。这只是我瞎猜。而且这是个光谱:有狂热追随我的,也有恨我入骨的,两头都有一定数量的人。

¶19 · 〔不逐句翻译〕

范围说明:原文从「你一直在讲『自杀式共情』那套想法」开始,一直到「Where do you get your information?」之前,是一段关于共情、移民、宗教、国别冲突与一桩刑事案件的长问答。它与本次 AI / 工程学习主题无关,按本库「政治、社会议题不展开、不评价」的约定不逐句翻译。原文一字未动地保留在 sources/ 的 transcript 里,段落位置在此,前后文衔接不受影响。

¶20 · 信息从哪来;两个气泡

Isaacson:你从哪儿获取信息?我知道你不太待见传统媒体、主流媒体。主要来自社交媒体吗,还是你有别的信源?

马斯克:嗯,我看 Google News,就是一堆标题的汇总;我看 X 平台——真有足够重要的事,X 上会出现;我跟朋友聊;再就是自己做研究。大概就是这样。

Isaacson:我为什么问这个:我也有很多新闻来自社交媒体,尤其 X,它呈现的世界观偏暗、偏反乌托邦。以前也一样,主流媒体会说「一切都在完蛋,到处都是暴乱」,你出门走一圈却说「等等,我人就在这儿,没那么糟啊」。你觉得呢?

马斯克:对对对,完全是这样。你得注意什么在取景框里。我有时候也觉得 X 的调子偏暗。而且真要搞懂 AI 在发生什么,我得切到 AI 这种垂直领域的信息源才行。X 上政治性的引战内容太多了,如果你指的是这个——是的。

Isaacson:不只是引战和阴暗,我知道你卷进过「英国是不是要完蛋了」那类讨论,那里头确实有一股阴暗劲儿。 马斯克:我自己刷社交媒体刷多了也会这么觉得,会以为世界真的在崩塌;然后我出门走一走,发现日子还行。 Isaacson:对,偶尔去摸摸草。 马斯克:没错。

不过我觉得两边都可能骗人。你在个漂亮社区里散步,一切看着都很好,可别处可能正在发生很糟的事。所以你既不该假定全世界都在完蛋,也不该假定全世界都很好,现实在中间。

我有时候觉得我们的社会太二元了,什么都非黑即白,于是什么都极化。我不知道这是技术造成的,还是我们的信息流造成的。你说得对,现实里可以有「正能量气泡」(只在合适的街区散步,于是一切看着都好),社交媒体上也可以有「负能量气泡」,两种都存在。

¶21 · 财富的去向;人类该不该一直掌权

Isaacson:你前面提到财富,说现在正在把它投出去。你走了以后,财富怎么办?会设一个很大的基金会吗?有没有什么你特别想给的方向? 马斯克:大体上会进基金会一类的安排。 Isaacson:那你希望这个基金会做什么?我就是在问这个。 马斯克:把目标接着做下去:让生命成为多行星的,把意识延伸到群星,改善地球上的可持续能源。 Isaacson:那是不是意味着人类应该始终掌握控制权? 马斯克:我大概会更希望人类一直掌权吧。不过也得看那个 AI——如果 AI 特别棒,你可能会说,也许该让 AI 来掌权。 Isaacson:我上周末刚见着 Larry Page,你现在说话越来越像他了。他曾经因为你说「人类应该一直掌权」,说你是 speciesist(物种主义者)。现在你好像在往「其实也无所谓」那边挪。 马斯克:老实说,有那么几次我觉得,也许 Larry Page 是对的。不,我是说,未来基本上会由 AI 和机器人来决定,火箭在某种程度上也算,因为要往地球之外扩张,我们需要更多能源,主要是太阳能。我在大幅增加太阳能的量,比如我们正在美国组装每年 200 吉瓦的太阳能产能,这比我认为目前现有的还要多得多。

¶22–23 · 收尾:希望 AI 对我们好一点;别再写终结者了

Isaacson:最后回到我刚才可能打断你的地方——你在解释为什么你觉得(但你也不确定)让意识和智能不仅对齐人类价值、而且让人类保持掌控,是不是一直都是好事。我的看法是:如果数字智能比生物智能多一百万倍,很难想象人类还能掌握控制。所以我希望 AI 对我们友善一点。

马斯克:有没有什么能鼓励它这么做?我觉得把追求真理和好奇写进去大概是有用的。还有,我觉得我们得小心,别在网上制造太多 AI 反乌托邦的剧本,因为 AI 是用网上的一切训练出来的。我们要是说未来是乌托邦、是反乌托邦,它们就会照着演。 Isaacson:那得是《终结者》啊,它们读到什么就成什么。 马斯克:对,网上有 80 个版本的《终结者》剧本。所以……我猜那就是我吧,终结者。也许我们该多来点乌托邦叙事,这样我就能想:嗯,也许我不该当终结者,也许我可以当个友善的监督者,或者当个园丁之类的,试着让人类开心一点。

我有个朋友提过一个叫 protopia(进托邦) 的说法:乌托邦往往代表一个不可能实现的理想目标,而通常在试图造乌托邦的过程中,你造出的是反乌托邦,故事基本都这么走。所以她觉得应该叫 protopia——一个够得着的未来,不完美,但在变好,好到你往未来看一眼会说:嗯,那会是个不错的未来。

Isaacson:Elon,太感谢了,谢谢你来。回头见。 马斯克:不客气,回头见。


未译清单(含原文定位)

原文档是一整段连续文本、无时间码,以下用起止原句定位;transcript.md 中可用这些句子直接搜到。

# 译文位置 范围 原文起句 → 止句 处理方式
1 ¶11 中段(第 113 行标注) 一小节,约 470 字符 I think it's always it was important to elect... → ...what I should have done I think was be more in the background 整段不译,标 〔中段省略说明〕
2 ¶12 内(第 128 行) 1 句 And President Trump is not, you know, he he he likes to be liked... 略去,标 [此处有一句…按范围约定略去]
3 ¶18 开场(第 175 行) 1 处专名 Let me go back to something you said... about [某政治人物] which he really likes to be liked 人名替换为 [某政治人物],句子其余部分照译
4 ¶19 整段(第 181–183 行) 约 4485 字符,占原文约 13% Well, you've been talking a lot about the suicidal empathy ideas... → Now I think we shouldn't let people like that into the country. Do you?(下接 Where where do you get your information? 即 ¶20 开始) 整段不译,单列一节标范围说明

去重说明(不算漏译):¶7–8 处节目把片头引子完整回放了一次,内容已在 ¶1 译出,不重复计为第二次发言。 其余全部内容均已译出,含数字、比喻、玩笑与自我修正;未译部分不影响前后文衔接。

待侃姐提问

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